Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race with every pollster for the first time ever

Texas Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton, with every pollster in the current polling set now showing Talarico ahead of Paxton in the November U.S. Senate election.

Talarico leads Paxton in polls from eight different pollsters. The latest, an Emerson College survey conducted September 12 to 14, shows Talarico ahead 47 percent to 46 percent.

Emerson’s previous poll was the last survey to show Paxton leading, at 47 percent to Talarico’s 46 percent.

Texas has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since Lloyd Bentsen won reelection in 1988. Although the state remains a Republican stronghold in federal races, recent elections have become more competitive amid shifting demographic and political dynamics.

President Donald Trump has endorsed Paxton, calling him the “greatest attorney general in America.” Trump has also repeatedly attacked Talarico, referring to him as “Talafreako” in social media posts and speeches.

Newsweek contacted the Talarico and Paxton campaigns for comment by email Thursday morning and is awaiting responses.

Why the new Emerson poll matters

Emerson’s latest results mean every pollster currently represented in the Texas Senate polling set has produced a survey showing Talarico ahead.

Recent polls include a four-point Talarico lead in an AARP survey of 895 likely voters conducted August 30 to September 1, with a 3.3-point margin of error. A YouGov/Univision poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted August 27 to September 4 showed Talarico ahead by five points, with a 3.6-point margin of error.

A Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted August 21 to 24 gave Talarico a seven-point lead, with a 3.3-point margin of error.

University of Texas polling conducted August 5 to 13 among 1,218 registered voters showed Talarico ahead by three points. The margin of error was 2.83 points before weighting and 3.58 points after weighting.

An Overton Insights text-to-web survey of 1,167 likely voters conducted August 24 to 26 initially showed Talarico ahead 44.0 percent to 43.4 percent. After undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward, the race became a 50-50 tie.

A Telemundo/Mason-Dixon survey of 625 registered voters conducted September 8 to 10 showed Talarico ahead 46 percent to 43 percent, with a four-point margin of error.

The current pattern differs from earlier this summer, when several pollsters still showed Paxton ahead.

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll of 1,200 self-reported registered voters conducted online by YouGov showed Paxton at 43 percent and Talarico at 42 percent. The survey’s unadjusted margin of error was plus or minus 2.83 percentage points, or plus or minus 3.47 points after weighting.

The most notable shift in Emerson’s latest survey came among Hispanic voters.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release: “Texas Hispanic voters, who broke for Trump in 2024, now break for Talarico by 15 points, 54 percent to 39 percent. These voters disapprove of the president 53 percent to 41 percent and 51 percent think the state is on the wrong track rather than the right direction.”

That represents a smaller Talarico advantage than Emerson found in August, when he led Hispanic voters by 19 points.

At the time, Kimball said 58 percent of Hispanic voters disapproved of Trump and 57 percent disapproved of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.

The subgroup results should be interpreted cautiously because demographic samples are smaller than the overall survey. Emerson warns that results for groups defined by age, race, education or gender have larger credibility intervals.

Talarico’s support among Hispanic voters is significant because Republicans made substantial gains with the group in the 2024 presidential election.

Paxton’s path, meanwhile, depends partly on maintaining strong support among Republican voters and older Texans.

Emerson’s August poll showed a clear age divide. Voters under 50 favored Talarico 53 percent to 38 percent, while voters over 50 favored Paxton 53 percent to 42 percent.

Other recent surveys have also shown a gender gap.

The Mason-Dixon poll had Talarico leading among women 52 percent to 36 percent, while Paxton led among men 51 percent to 39 percent. The same survey showed Paxton strongest in East Texas and Talarico strongest in Central Texas.

Favorability ratings present a challenge for Paxton

The latest Emerson poll gave Talarico a positive net favorability rating, with 48 percent viewing him favorably and 42 percent unfavorably.

Paxton’s ratings were reversed, with 40 percent viewing him favorably and 48 percent unfavorably.

The favorability gap does not directly translate to the ballot, where Paxton trails by just one point. It does, however, show a difference in the candidates’ personal ratings.

Emerson’s August poll showed them much closer. Talarico was viewed favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 41 percent, while Paxton was at 43 percent favorable and 44 percent unfavorable.

The latest figures show a deterioration in Paxton’s favorability rating even as the ballot margin shifted only two points, from Paxton plus one to Talarico plus one.

The economy dominates the Texas election

The economy was the top issue in Emerson’s September survey, cited by 36 percent of voters. That included 38 percent of Republicans, 37 percent of Democrats and 30 percent of independents.

The same poll showed Republican Governor Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49 percent to 46 percent in the governor’s race, while Talarico held a one-point lead over Paxton in the Senate contest.

What the campaigns say

Talarico, a former public school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, has made his Christian faith a central part of his political identity and has advocated for LGBTQ+ rights.

Republicans have targeted his statements on religion and gender. Paxton captioned an AI-generated attack ad: “James Talarico is weaponizing faith to sell a radical agenda.”

According to FactCheck.org, the ad combined remarks from different settings into a synthetic performance and included phrases that were not part of Talarico’s original statements.