Democrat Charles Booker gets fresh odds of flipping Mitch McConnell’s Senate seat in race against Republican Rep. Andy Barr as Kentucky senator returns to Congress

Democratic Senate nominee Charles Booker is trailing Republican Rep. Andy Barr in Kentucky’s open Senate race, but internal polling and a shifting national political landscape are giving Democrats hope that the contest could be more competitive than the state’s deep-red history suggests.

The latest developments come as retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell, 84, returns to the Senate floor after a three-month absence following a fall at his Washington, D.C., home.

Context behind the race

McConnell announced in February 2025 that he would not seek reelection, setting up Kentucky’s first open Senate contest in years.

The primaries established a general election matchup between Barr and Booker. Barr, who has represented Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District since 2012, secured the Republican nomination after businessman Nate Morris withdrew from the primary to consolidate support behind him. Barr won with 275,773 votes, or 60.4 percent, while his closest rival, former Attorney General Daniel Cameron, received 140,915 votes, or 30.9 percent.

On the Democratic side, Booker defeated Amy McGrath with 47.1 percent of the vote. Both candidates argued that McConnell’s departure created a rare opening in the reliably Republican state.

Booker previously lost the 2020 Democratic Senate primary to McGrath and the 2022 general election to Republican Senator Rand Paul after winning that year’s primary.

Kentucky has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 1990s. The state backed President Donald Trump by roughly 30 points in the 2024 presidential election, according to prior reporting on the race.

Latest polls and odds

A poll commissioned by Booker’s campaign found him trailing Barr 49 percent to 40 percent among likely voters. Conducted by Global Strategy Group, the survey included 600 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Lexington television station WDKY first reported the results.

Despite the nine-point deficit, Booker’s campaign described the findings as encouraging given Kentucky’s Republican lean.

A Booker campaign spokesperson told Newsweek that prediction markets reflect outside observers rather than conditions on the ground and described the race as winnable amid voter frustration with the political establishment.

Barr’s campaign rejected that assessment. Communications Director Alex Bellizzi told Newsweek that Booker represents an extreme choice for Kentucky voters and predicted Barr would defeat him in November.

Independent, nonpartisan polling has not confirmed the narrower margin in Booker’s internal survey. Major forecasters continue to rate the contest as safely Republican.

University of Kentucky political scientist Stephen Voss told CNBC that special elections are highly unpredictable, as low turnout can produce results that diverge from a state’s broader political orientation. His comments came during a separate discussion about what would happen if McConnell’s seat became vacant before his term ended.

Prediction markets continued to favor Barr heavily. As of mid-September, Polymarket gave him a 96 percent probability of winning, compared with roughly 3 percent for Booker. Octagon showed Barr’s projected win probability between 93 and 97 percent, while Pollsmax gave him a 98.1 percent chance of victory.

Pollsmax projected Barr would receive 60.4 percent of the vote to Booker’s 39.6 percent, a margin of roughly 21 points. Election-tracking site MacroVoter also rated the contest Solid Republican, showing Republicans favored 97 percent to 3 percent.

Democrats have pointed to a more favorable national environment as a source of optimism, although it has not yet translated into stronger numbers in Kentucky. An Emerson College Polling survey showed Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot nationally by 11 points, 53 percent to 42 percent.

McConnell’s return and the health controversy

McConnell fell at his Washington, D.C., residence and was briefly hospitalized after losing consciousness. He remained away from the Capitol for roughly three months.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat, publicly called on McConnell to provide an update on his health. McConnell responded with a written statement saying he intended to return to the Senate floor as soon as possible. He was later discharged from a rehabilitation facility to continue therapy at home.

The lack of detailed updates fueled further criticism. Beshear told CBS News’ Face the Nation that he had received no response from McConnell’s office and urged the senator to speak publicly, even briefly, to his constituents.

House Oversight Chair James Comer, a fellow Kentucky Republican, said that month that McConnell’s staff hoped he would return when the Senate reconvened from recess.

McConnell ultimately returned to the Senate and acknowledged that he was still not at full strength. He attributed part of his slower recovery to lingering effects of childhood polio and said he had told Senate Majority Leader John Thune that he would make himself available for difficult votes going forward.

What happens next

Kentucky’s general election is scheduled for November 3.

Unless McConnell resigns, dies, or is expelled from the Senate before his term ends in January 2027, no special election will be held to fill his seat before then.

The Cook Political Report rates the contest “Solid Republican,” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it “Safe Republican.” Both assessments place the race outside the small group of contests, including Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas, that are viewed as potentially decisive in determining overall Senate control.