A Sunday cold front will trigger scattered severe storms across Texas, with hail and damaging winds possible, especially after evening.
A cold front rolling into Texas Sunday evening is poised to turn an otherwise springlike weekend into a high-stakes weather window, with hail risk and damaging wind gusts possible across much of the state.
The threat is already building in forecasts that point to a return of warmer conditions after several cooler. cloudier days in South Texas.. Temperatures are expected to climb back into the 80s and low 90s. while the risk of scattered but strong thunderstorms increases. particularly during the second half of Sunday.
For anyone planning early Mother’s Day activities, the immediate concern is lower for much of the day. Most of Texas is expected to remain dry through the late afternoon, allowing the day to stay relatively calm before the cold front’s timing changes the atmosphere.
Saturday’s setup offered clues to what’s coming: a cloudy. muggy morning across South and Central Texas with temperatures in the low to mid-70s through about 10 a.m.. With high moisture already in place. isolated showers and storms were possible during the morning. though overall rain chances were limited. including around 20% in the San Antonio area.
As the day progressed, clouds were expected to thin by mid-day, allowing temperatures to steadily rise.. San Antonio was forecast to reach the upper 80s in the afternoon. with humidity making it feel closer to the 90s. even as only isolated thunderstorms developed later. roughly between 3 p.m.. and 7 p.m.. Most of South Texas was expected to stay dry through Saturday.
By Sunday, conditions shift from “warm and humid” to “watch the sky after evening.” In the San Antonio area, morning temperatures were expected to begin in the 70s and climb into the lower to mid-80s by noon, then push into the lower 90s in the afternoon as humidity remains high.
The main trigger is the cold front’s movement through Texas.. It is expected to start pushing through North Texas by Sunday afternoon. slide into the Hill Country by about 7 p.m.. and reach the San Antonio area around 9 to 10 p.m.. Meteorologists describe thunderstorms forming as the front meets the already humid air mass. a combination that can help storms strengthen quickly.
Severe storm potential focuses on what those fast-growing storms could produce.. Reports indicate storms could intensify rapidly, bringing large hail and damaging wind gusts.. A potential radar snapshot for 7 p.m.. Sunday also suggests a line of strong thunderstorms moving toward South and Central Texas along the front. with San Antonio’s best chance of storms expected after 8 p.m.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Texas under a level 2 to 3 risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday.. The highest level is centered across the middle of the state. including the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Waco. Abilene. and San Angelo. where a level 3 risk for severe thunderstorms is in effect.
Farther south, Austin and San Antonio fall under a level 2 risk, with the expectation that storms may weaken somewhat as they move south. Even so, the forecast still calls for storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts in those areas.
In San Antonio specifically, the chance of thunderstorms is estimated around 60% to 70%, with the greatest odds occurring between 8 p.m.. and midnight.. The forecast also flags the possibility of frequent. intense lightning and heavy downpours. adding to the concern even where hail or wind damage is most likely.
Looking beyond Sunday’s front, the aftermath is expected to be relatively modest.. The cold front is forecast to cause only a small temperature drop early in the week. with Monday morning temperatures in the upper 60s and afternoon highs returning to the mid-80s.. Skies are expected to start partly cloudy before turning mostly sunny later.
Very similar conditions are expected Tuesday, with temperatures again rising into the mid-80s. After that, the week looks warmer in stages: Wednesday through Friday afternoons are forecast to run in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, with only slight changes in day-to-day conditions.
Thunderstorm chances are expected to remain very low throughout the week as high atmospheric pressure builds over Texas.. The next meaningful opportunity for rain is not expected until at least May 16-18. meaning Sunday’s severe-weather window may represent the most significant storm risk for days to come.
With the timing concentrated around Sunday evening. the key issue is how quickly storms can develop once the front pushes south into already humid air.. That interaction helps explain why the forecast leans toward a late-day surge—while much of the afternoon remains dry. the risk rises sharply as evening approaches.
Texas weather cold front severe thunderstorms hail risk Storm Prediction Center San Antonio storms