Coastal flooding ramps up as nor’easter batters East Coast

A nor’easter will bring coastal flooding, high surf, wind and rain to parts of the East Coast through the weekend, with impacts from North Carolina to New England.

New York City and especially Boston need to stay weather aware this weekend.

Happening now

The nor’easter is strengthening as it heads north. The map below shows the winds and rain as the low moves north along the East Coast.

Forecast timing

Here’s a general timeline of the storm and its impacts over the next several days.

• Friday: Rain, possibly heavy, stronger winds and coastal flooding arrive in parts of southeast New England. For Long Island, coastal flooding is expected at high tide. Gusty winds continue from Massachusetts to Virginia Tidewater and parts of northern North Carolina.
• Saturday: Locally heavy rain, strong winds possible over much of coastal, southern New England. Rain is also likely to spread to New York City. High tide coastal flooding from New England to at least parts of the mid-Atlantic coast once again.
• Sunday: Nor’easter weakens, but rain showers, some gusty winds could linger over much of New England, possibly the Hudson Valley.
• Monday: Some showers could linger in parts of the Northeast, moving out of the area as the day progresses.

Potential impacts

Coastal flooding

The map below shows the severity of coastal flooding forecast at high tide through Friday night or early Saturday, color coded by severity. Coastal flood warnings are in place for Virginia Beach, Dover and Atlantic City.

The most significant coastal flooding will be from the northern Outer Banks of North Carolina to the southern New Jersey shore, including the Virginia Tidewater, as well as Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay.

This flooding will happen for multiple high tides into at least early this weekend in these areas.

Given this repeated battering from high surf, beach erosion is expected along stretches of these beaches, potentially reaching extreme levels for some areas.

At least minor coastal high tide flooding will also develop in parts of New England by late Friday into the weekend. High surf advisories and coastal flood watches are in place and include Boston.

Heavy rain

We expect the heaviest rain to fall over coastal New England from Friday through the weekend.

This could lead to flash flooding, especially in urban areas, including the Boston metro.

It could also compound any coastal flooding at high tide in parts of southeast New England.

Much lighter rainfall accumulations are expected farther west, in the light green colors in the map below.

In the New York City metro area, the heaviest rainfall is expected in eastern Long Island, with less rain farther west in the New Jersey suburbs.

Winds

High wind warnings are in place for Boston as well as parts of New England. The strongest winds with this nor’easter are expected Friday and Saturday from eastern Long Island to coastal and southeast New England, with some gusts up to 60 mph possible at times.

In these areas, some tree damage and power outages are most likely, including the Boston metro, Providence and Cape Cod.

Otherwise, occasional gusts from 40 to 50 mph are possible farther down the coast from the Jersey Shore to Delaware and the Virginia Tidewater. Some sporadic power outages and tree limb damage are also possible in these areas.

Travel impact

Here are some tips to keep in mind if you plan to travel to the Northeast into this weekend:

• Northeast major-hub airports: Delays are most likely at Boston-Logan this weekend and are possible, at times, at NYC’s three major airports through the weekend.
• Roads: Some downed trees or tree limbs and flash flooding are possible in southeast and coastal New England, as well as eastern Long Island. Avoid coastal areas from northern North Carolina to southeast New England around any high tides into the weekend.

Recap

Some gusts topped 40 mph along the coast from southern Massachusetts down to the Virginia Tidewater Wednesday.

And those persistent winds are piled up water from the ocean and bays along parts of the coast.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding was reported from parts of the Jersey Shore to southeast Virginia during Wednesday’s morning and evening high tides.

Flooding was reported Wednesday morning in downtown Norfolk, Smithfield and Suffolk, Virginia, according to the National Weather Service.

Widespread gusts of 30-45 mph are ongoing as of Thursday evening, with peak gusts over 45 mph reported along the coast of North Carolina.

Those persistent winds were piling up water from the ocean and bays along parts of the coast. Water levels reached major flood stage during high tide Thursday evening.

A 16-mile stretch of the North Carolina Highway 12 on the Outer Banks is closed in both directions due to ocean overwash. Specifically, the road is closed from Sea Oats Dr to Oregon Inlet Rd in Dare County.

Rising waters forced the cancellation of the Oceans Calling festival in Maryland.

What is a nor’easter?

You might think it is too early for a nor’easter, but the criteria for a nor’easter are met more often than you would think.

A nor’easter simply means that the winds blow into an area from the northeast. For the Northeast, that usually means an area of low pressure is just off the coast, which brings the winds in this direction. 

(More: What is a nor’easter?)

Most people usually think of snow and ice with nor’easters and that is because nor’easters do tend to occur more in the late fall and winter. 

The most notable nor’easters tend to bring heavy snow because these lows move up along the Gulf Stream, tapping into the warm ocean. This warm, moist air then clashes with the cold air over the Northeast to create heavy snowfall. Fortunately, this one is occurring way earlier, so it is all rain this time.