ATLANTA — A week ago, the fate of the National League East was blurry. Now, with 12 games remaining, the Atlanta Braves have created enough breathing room to begin looking beyond the division race and toward October.
With a five-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies, the Braves need seven wins to clinch the NL East — a number that could shrink depending on Philadelphia’s results — and five to secure their first postseason berth since 2024.
As the Braves have won four of seven against the Phillies over the past week, other pieces of their postseason roster are beginning to fall into place. Their recent success gives them more flexibility with how they deploy their starters. Matt Olson is finding his swing at the right time, and Robert Suarez is progressing toward a return that could reshape the bullpen.
Still, manager Walt Weiss has no intention of taking his foot off the gas.
“You can’t let your guard down,” Weiss said. “Even if you end up clinching something. You can’t let your guard down because it’s too hard, and this game is too hard. The league is too difficult to just flip that switch again.”
Chipper Jones on the Braves’ postseason outlook
Jayson Stark
Outside of Sunday’s late-game bullpen struggles in a 9-4 loss, the Braves showed signs of a team rounding into postseason form.
Friday’s 6-5 win reflected the construction, management and depth of the roster, culminating in Drake Baldwin’s walk-off double. A night later, the Braves erupted for 13 hits and eight runs in the fourth inning during a 12-2 win.
It was an encouraging response from an offense that had scored only six runs across four games heading into the weekend.
The Braves have navigated a difficult stretch featuring the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Tampa Bay Rays and Phillies. Two more challenges await this week as they begin a six-game trip, starting Monday against the Chicago Cubs, who are fighting to remain the NL’s top wild-card team, before facing the Houston Astros, who lead the AL West.
With the postseason picture coming into focus, three storylines in particular are worth watching.
How the pitching plans are affected
With a successful series outcome against Philadelphia, the Braves won’t be pitching with their backs against the wall this week. The club announced that Reynaldo López will face left-hander David Peterson on Tuesday, and Martin Pérez will duel right-hander Kevin Gausman on Wednesday against the Chicago Cubs.
No starter has been named for Thursday’s game against left-hander Shota Imanaga.
“We’ve had stretches of that this year where our rotation’s been a little bit in flux, and we’re making some decisions on the fly,” Weiss said. “So that’ll be the case here.”
Based on the rotation schedule, that would be AJ Smith-Shawver’s slot, and it still could be. However, the fact that Smith-Shawver has not been named indicates the Braves are assessing their options.
Weiss has consistently called Smith-Shawver a big part of the team’s future, but the 23-year-old has allowed 16 runs in 16 2/3 innings with 11 walks and 14 strikeouts over his last four starts. In Smith-Shawver’s most recent outing against the Tampa Bay Rays, the first team in MLB to clinch a playoff spot, he allowed four runs, including two home runs, in 3 1/3 innings.
The Braves could still offer Smith-Shawver one more start to prove he can handle pitching in the postseason. It would replicate a playoff environment, with the Cubs fighting to remain the NL’s top wild-card team.
If they don’t, the best option would be Chris Sale to start the series finale. It would be the first time Sale is pitching on regular rest since July 29, as the Braves have been lining him up for marquee pitching matchups.
There is also a dark horse candidate: JR Ritchie.
Ritchie has shuttled between the majors and Triple A, mainly because of his command struggles, walking batters at a 14.1 percent rate. But his promising results since being optioned Aug. 3 might force the Braves to see him pitch at Wrigley Field.
Ritchie, who is eligible to pitch in the postseason since he was on the 40-man roster on Sept. 1, would be on regular rest to start for Triple-A Gwinnett. The 23-year-old has a 4.50 ERA with 53 strikeouts and 36 walks with the big-league club. On Sept. 6, Ritchie set a Gwinnett Stripers single-game strikeout record with 15.
Regardless of who starts Thursday, if it isn’t Smith-Shawver, the decision could signal the Braves are evaluating how he can best contribute in October. His high-octane stuff and ability to cover multiple innings could make him an intriguing bridge option in the postseason.
What Robert Suarez’s progress means for the bullpen
The Braves setup man has been on the injured list since June 26 with right elbow inflammation. But after Suarez threw around 15 pitches to hitters Sunday morning at Truist Park, his fastball touched 98 mph.
Suarez’s return timeline has been the clearest it’s ever been. He will likely throw one more live session, and perhaps the Braves can sneak him into a rehab assignment with Triple-A Gwinnett, whose season ends next week.
“I was very encouraged,” Weiss said. “To be honest with you, I wasn’t expecting that. I thought he kind of eased into it, but he let it go, and it was really good, and he felt really good afterwards.”
Robert Suarez’s priority is to be at his healthiest in October. (Edward M. Pio Roda / Getty Images)
At the time of his injury, Suarez’s 0.56 ERA was the best among any qualified reliever in MLB. The signing immediately gave the Braves a return on their offseason investment after handing him a three-year, $45 million contract.
Losing their setup man wasn’t ideal, but the bullpen has remained strong. Since June 19, the last time Suarez pitched, Braves relievers have posted a 3.73 ERA. Overall, Braves relievers have a combined 3.33 ERA, the National League’s best.
“I’m mostly working on rhythm,” Suarez said via Braves team interpreter Franco García. “I just want my body to be in the right sequence, and be around the zone and be able to attack hitters. When the time comes, I want to be in that game-time rhythm.”
With two weeks left in the season and the Braves in a comfortable position, they do not need to rush Suarez back out of necessity. The priority for Suarez has been to be at his healthiest in October.
Suarez’s return will enhance an already strong bullpen, but it will also provide a better order for how the relievers are deployed. Didier Fuentes has essentially filled in as the setup man in Suarez’s absence, with left-hander Dylan Lee also sprinkling in some appearances.
The 21-year-old Fuentes has a 1.82 ERA when pitching in relief, second best in the National League. With Suarez back in the eighth and Raisel Iglesias closing, it allows Weiss to have more flexibility with Fuentes’ usage in the playoffs.
If any of the Braves’ starters go short, Fuentes can provide multi-inning outings but also come in during high-leverage situations if runners are on base. Among players with at least 32 inherited runners, Fuentes’ seven that he has allowed to score are tied for the fewest in the NL.
The ripple effect also gives Weiss more flexibility with Lee, Dylan Dodd and Victor Mederos.
Olson’s bat returns
When Matt Olson is certain the ball he just smacked is leaving the park, he has developed a signature look of pure disgust. But when he smacked the third pitch he saw from Aaron Nola on Friday night, Olson’s face was one of optimism.
That’s because he hit the ball as opposite-field as it gets. Olson stared at the ball as he jogged toward first base, watching it clang off the foul pole.
Not only did it give the Braves an early lead, but it was also Olson’s first homer since Aug. 26 after coming into the game 3-for-23 over his last seven games.
“I’ll take them anytime I can get them, for sure,” Olson said. “It wasn’t windy tonight, so I think on a normal day, the ball blew foul and kind of just held true a little bit and caught a piece of pole.”
In his last at-bat of the series, Olson smashed his 39th homer of the season. He is just one away from having his second 40-homer season in his career, and his bat is surging at the right time.
Olson finished the series 4-for-14 with four RBIs. The Braves first baseman has been referred to as the catalyst of Atlanta’s offense, and if he can return to the best form possible, he’ll be a nightmare for pitchers to face.