AI disinflation – Misryoum reports that AI is adding near-term inflation pressure through hardware costs, software price increases, and rising electricity bills.
AI is supposed to cool prices, but in the US it’s doing the opposite in the near term, according to Misryoum.
Misryoum reports that economists at Goldman Sachs said artificial intelligence. despite its long-term potential to raise productivity. is currently contributing to inflationary pressures that weigh on consumers.. The broader expectation was that AI-driven efficiency would eventually bring disinflation. but the transition period appears to be more costly than many anticipated.
This matters because it reframes AI from a purely “future savings” story into a live pricing force that can affect everyday household budgets while the technology scales.
Misryoum notes that Goldman expects AI to become disinflationary later, once productivity gains spread widely.. The firm’s view is that as more firms adopt AI, higher productivity should lower production costs over time.. However. it also flagged conditions that could blunt that effect. such as businesses channeling the benefits into higher profits and wages rather than lower prices. or policy responses that shift interest-rate timing in anticipation of falling inflation.
In the meantime, Misryoum reports three channels that are currently feeding inflation.
First, Misryoum says the AI boom is pushing up prices for parts used in computing.. Beyond advanced chips for data centers. demand has spilled into memory components. supporting a “memory supercycle.” The knock-on effect is higher prices for consumer devices that rely on those inputs. with Goldman pointing to the risk of price pressure on items such as laptops and smartphones.
Second, Misryoum reports that AI features are showing up in software pricing.. Goldman argues that when companies integrate AI into existing products and market the added functionality. they may raise subscription or license prices.. Misryoum also highlights that several major technology firms have increased prices after incorporating AI capabilities into their offerings. which can influence consumer spending patterns.
Third, Misryoum reports that data-center power demand is a growing cost driver.. As facilities expand to handle AI workloads, electricity usage rises and can push up power prices in certain regions.. Goldman’s analysis links these electricity costs to higher inflation readings, including measures that track consumer spending and price levels.
In this context, Misryoum’s takeaway is clear: AI’s economic impact is likely to arrive in phases.. Even if the technology ultimately lowers unit costs. today’s infrastructure build-out and pricing decisions can raise costs first. shaping inflation data and consumer sentiment along the way.. Misryoum will be watching whether the balance shifts from cost pressure to cost relief as AI productivity gains broaden.