Adam Hamilton gets fresh odds of becoming Kansas’ first Democratic senator in nearly a century as new poll shows him leading Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall

Democrat Adam Hamilton, founder of the country’s largest United Methodist church, leads Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 50 percent to 48 percent in a new Wedgewood Polls survey. It is the latest sign of an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in a state that has not sent a Democrat to the chamber since 1932.

Hamilton’s edge falls within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, meaning the survey does not establish a clear leader. Libertarian David Graham received 2 percent.

What the Wedgewood poll found

Wedgewood surveyed 500 likely voters through an online panel. The firm said it designed and funded the poll independently and that no candidate, campaign, party or outside group sponsored it.

The results showed notable differences among voter groups:

Hamilton led women 54 percent to 45 percent, while Marshall led men 51 percent to 46 percent.

Hamilton led 59 percent to 40 percent among voters ages 18 to 29.

Marshall led 52 percent to 46 percent among voters ages 45 to 64.

Hamilton led 59 percent to 40 percent among voters with at least a bachelor’s degree, while Marshall led 53 percent to 44 percent among those without a four-year degree.

Why the race is drawing attention

Marshall is seeking a second term, while Hamilton is trying to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas since George McGill won in 1932. The seat has long been considered safe for Republicans.

The Wedgewood result follows an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey conducted among 750 likely voters. It put Hamilton at 45 percent, Marshall at 43 percent and Graham at 4 percent, with 8 percent undecided. The credibility interval was 3.6 points.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said the survey found “Democrats with their best chance to win their first Senate seat in Kansas since 1932.” He said this was partly driven by Hamilton’s appeal to independent voters, whom he led by 15 points. Hamilton led independents 42 percent to 27 percent in that poll.

Emerson also found President Donald Trump‘s approval rating in Kansas at 40 percent, with 53 percent disapproving.

Other polls have shown different results. A co/efficient survey conducted among 915 likely voters had Marshall leading 49 percent to 44 percent. A Global Strategy Group poll conducted August 12-16 among 800 likely voters had Hamilton ahead 44 percent to 43 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey had Marshall ahead 46 percent to 45 percent. Its available results do not report a margin of error.

Statements from the campaigns

Glynnis Harvey, a Hamilton campaign spokesperson, said, “Roger Marshall abandoned Kansas.” She said Marshall had “been a yes-man to Washington power” and would “rather spend his days in Florida than meet with and actually listen to the people he’s supposed to represent.”

Forecasters shift their ratings

The Cook Political Report moved Kansas from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” Cook Senate editor Jessica Taylor wrote that “some private GOP polling has Marshall with more of an advantage than public polls and some private Democratic surveys that show a dead heat.” Taylor also said GOP sources described “weak spots” for Marshall that would need shoring up.

Cook had earlier moved the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” after Hamilton won the Democratic primary in August. Sabato’s Crystal Ball also moved Kansas from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” the day before Cook’s change.

Decision Desk HQ, a polling partner, still gives Marshall the advantage. It put Hamilton’s chances at 21 percent in one report and 23 percent in another. Prediction markets have also remained more favorable to Marshall.

Republican defections and party reinforcements

Two Republicans have publicly backed Hamilton. Former Gov. Bill Graves said in a video Hamilton shared on X that “for the last six years, Senator Roger Marshall has turned his back on Kansas.”

Arch Naramore, who won more than 20 percent of the vote against Marshall in the August primary, endorsed Hamilton. Naramore said in a YouTube video that he has “always” been a Republican and that Hamilton “will fight for all of us: Republicans, Democrats and independents.”

The White House sent Vice President J.D. Vance to campaign with Marshall in Olathe. Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana also campaigned with the Kansas senator.

Immigration enforcement in southwest Kansas

Marshall has voiced concerns about how U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has carried out operations in southwest Kansas.

Amid increased ICE activity around Dodge City, Garden City and Liberal, he called for federal immigration agents to work more closely with local authorities on enforcement.

Kansas politics beyond the Senate

Trump won Kansas by 16.1 points in 2024, up from 14.7 points in 2020. The state’s electorate is heavily white and non-college-educated, groups that have generally leaned Republican in recent elections.

The state’s political record is mixed. Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly has won two terms. In 2022, voters rejected by 59 percent a ballot measure that would have removed abortion protections from the state constitution. Marshall won in 2020 by 11.4 percentage points.

Marshall is focusing on rural voters and warning that a Hamilton victory could help Democrats take control of the Senate. Hamilton presents himself as a centrist and says his congregation is split roughly evenly among Democrats, Republicans and independents.