home price – Fifteen U.S. metro areas are now at least 10% below their 2022 home-price peaks, with the steepest declines concentrated in parts of the South and Mountain West, even as the national market has largely recalibrated.
The pandemic housing boom didn’t just lift home prices—it pulled them far past what new supply could quickly meet. By June 2022, U.S. home prices were 43.2% above March 2020 levels, after demand surged on ultralow interest rates, stimulus, and the remote-work boom.
Federal Reserve researchers estimated that “new construction would have had to increase by roughly 300% to absorb the pandemic-era surge in demand.” That mismatch helped drain active inventory and pushed prices to overheat in multiple metro areas. including Naples. Florida (+73%); Austin. Texas (+73%); Punta Gorda. Florida (+71%); Cape Coral-Fort Myers. Florida (+70%); and North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota (+69%).
Mortgage rates spiked in 2022, and the boom soon fizzled out. Since June 2022, the nationally aggregated housing market has been recalibrating, with U.S. home prices in March 2026 up just 2.2% above June 2022 levels. Over the same window, weekly U.S. worker earnings rose 14.7%.
But in some places, recalibration went further—and turned into a correction. Among the nation’s 300 largest metro-area housing markets, these 15 markets have home prices this spring at least 10% below their local 2022 peak, based on ResiClub’s analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index:
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown. TX → -27.8%
Punta Gorda. FL → -25.4%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers. FL → -18.9%
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton. FL → -17.5%
New Orleans-Metairie. LA → -13.8%
Houma-Thibodaux. LA → -13.2%
Boulder. CO → -11.8%
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler. AZ → -11.6%
Naples-Marco Island. FL → -11.5%
Lake Charles. LA → -11.4%
San Antonio-New Braunfels. TX → -11.2%
San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley. CA → -11.0%
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood. CO → -10.6%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington. TX → -10.1%
Boise City. ID → -10.1%
The figures come with an important caveat: being down from a 2022 peak doesn’t guarantee prices are still falling. At the latest reading, home prices are up year over year in metro New Orleans (+2.1%), and pockets of San Francisco are seeing notable pricing action this spring.
A pattern runs through the data and the story behind it: the biggest declines cluster in markets that saw sharp pandemic-era price run-ups. then faced mortgage-rate shock and a demand slowdown after pandemic domestic migration cooled—while newer-home supply increased in some Sunbelt areas.. Once that demand softening hit. places that had to lean more heavily on local incomes to support frothy prices. such as Punta Gorda and Austin. saw home values cool as affordability adjustments showed up in new construction and eventually echoed into resale.
Many of the softest markets. where prices are down the most from the 2022 peak. are located in Southern and Mountain West regions.. ResiClub points to the role of pandemic boomtowns: those areas saw significant home price growth during the pandemic housing boom. which stretched prices beyond local income levels.. Once pandemic-fueled domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates spiked. markets like Punta Gorda. Florida. and Austin. Texas. were left relying on local incomes to sustain higher price levels.
The decline in these areas was also accelerated by the abundance of new home supply in the pipeline across the Sunbelt.. When builders cut prices or make other affordability adjustments to maintain sales, those moves can cool the resale market too.. The mechanism is straightforward as described by ResiClub: some buyers who might have opted for an existing home shift toward new homes where deals are available.
Elsewhere, the dynamics differed.. Northeast and Midwest markets were described as less reliant on pandemic domestic migration and having less new home construction in progress.. With lower exposure to that migration pullback demand shock—and fewer homebuilders offering large incentives—active inventory in these Midwest and Northeast regions has remained relatively tight.
A separate measure adds another layer to the comparison.. ResiClub cites a moderate statistical correlation between Moody’s Q2 2022 valuation score and the change in home prices from their 2022 peak through March 2026: R² = 0.30.. When the San Francisco metro area—the largest outlier—is excluded, the correlation strengthens slightly to R² = 0.39.
Zooming in, among the 412 metro areas Moody’s Analytics tracks, Punta Gorda has seen the biggest drawdown in “overvaluation” since the pandemic housing boom fizzled out in Q2 2022. It’s followed by New Orleans, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Austin, and North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota.
ResiClub frames the theory this way: as froth recedes and “overvaluation” comes down, downside risk tends to ease. And that dynamic may already be showing up in pockets of Texas and Florida housing, where home prices have fallen and “overvaluation” has declined considerably since Q2 2022.
housing market home prices pandemic boom mortgage rates Zillow Home Value Index ResiClub overvaluation Sunbelt Austin Florida Texas