April 15, 2026 — 5:30am
If you’ve watched enough AFL to know how quickly momentum flips, you don’t need to be told this matchup carries extra weight. Thursday night’s blockbuster sits outside the top 10, but the real storyline is what happens after the whistle, when lists get reset.
Misryoum editorial team can’t stop circling one question: will Collingwood be in contention when Nick Daicos is in his prime and coming out of contract? It’s not just about player talent, either. Both clubs are heading into a new era and neither has beaten a genuine top-four contender this season, so the urgency is obvious—transition their lists, fast.
Carlton’s argument for the long game starts with flexibility. The Blues have 17 players out of contract at the end of 2026, and they’ve already locked in key midfielders Sam Walsh and Jagga Smith on long-term deals in March. They also carry two first-round picks in each of the next two seasons—an important buffer when draft rules are still in the air.
And yep, they’re nervously waiting on the release of new draft rules. Misryoum newsroom reported that the draft price Carlton may need to pay to secure highly rated father-son Cody Walker is the big unknown. Walker showed explosive speed out of the middle when playing for the AIS-AFL Academy against North Melbourne VFL team on Sunday—there was this sharp thump of boots on turf and, honestly, you could feel the acceleration in the moment. Competing club voices suggested changes may not be finalised until as late as May, after heavy lobbying from the Blues and Port Adelaide gave the AFL Commission pause for thought.
Here’s the part that makes Carlton fans exhale: when Walker joins Harry Dean (who Carlton spent picks No.9 and 11 on last year to match a bid at No.3) and Smith on the list at season’s end, regardless of price, Carlton will have added a top-five rated player in each of the past three seasons. They’ve also put 70 matches into pick No.11 Ollie Hollands, who is yet to start discussions with the Blues on a contract beyond 2026. Hollands is the only Blues player 22 or under with significant exposed form who is uncontracted—though young tall Hudson O’Keeffe is showing good signs, as did defender Harry O’Farrell before he suffered a knee injury last season.
Collingwood, meanwhile, have 14 players out of contract. Veteran Jack Crisp is likely to hit a trigger mid-season to play on in 2027, and among those coming out are relatively inexpensive but still high-performing club greats Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Jeremy Howe. But the list picture is different: Collingwood do not have a player contracted beyond 2030, while Carlton have Walsh signed until 2034, Smith until 2030 and Jacob Weitering signed until 2031. Nick Daicos is locked in until 2029 and his equally consistent brother Josh until 2030. So sure, the midfield core is still protected—still—but it’s not the same kind of long runway.
The draft capital angle is where Misryoum editorial desk feels the gap forms. The Magpies’ premiership and preliminary final finishes have given them little access to the top end of the national draft since Craig McRae’s arrival in 2022. They also traded out their first-round picks for Lachie Schultz and Dan Houston, which leaves them with just one player inside the top 20 picks of the draft in the past four national drafts. They were unfortunate to miss a priority access opportunity for Gabriel Patterson this year, and even if Walker or potentially Lukas Koutoufides (the son of Anthony) takes advantage of new father-son dynamics, the Blues still have one more first and second-round pick than Collingwood at season’s end—and one more first-round pick than the Magpies in 2027.
Misryoum analysis indicates Collingwood are more likely to chase big names when the market opens. Carlton are more likely to tinker with free agency this season as they build their list, with key backs such as Jordon Butts (whose dad Gerard played with Carlton) and Buku Khamis (who they unsuccessfully tried to trade in last season) being monitored, while developing Dean and O’Farrell alongside Weitering is a priority. The Pies, on the other hand, are desperate to land a key forward. Ben King is more likely than not to sign a two-year deal to remain at the Gold Coast, and lesser lights like Joel Amartey and Mitch Lewis, along with the Suns’ Jed Walter, will also be considered. They’ll enter Zak Butters race too—long shots, though.
Collingwood has two flags since Carlton’s most recent in 1995, so in pure history they’re ahead. But when you squint past the next few weeks—past who looks sharp under stadium lights—the monogram still feels like it’s in front for the next chunk of years. Or maybe that’s just the story we want to tell ourselves before the first bounce…
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