If you’ve tried booking a flight lately, you’ve probably felt it: the price jumps faster than your plans do. One day it’s “not too bad,” the next it suddenly isn’t.
Misryoum’s travel desk has been looking closely at why airline tickets seem to cost more every year, and why the pricing doesn’t always follow the logic you expect. The core story is a mix of fewer competitors, higher operating costs, and then—crucially—modern pricing systems that react to demand in real time.
Ticket prices have increased over the decade for several reasons. For starters, the airline industry has consolidated a lot over the last few decades. Misryoum newsroom reported that in the United States, there are now only three major alliance airlines—American, Delta, and United. And with the recent bankruptcy of Spirit and the merger of Alaska and Hawaiian, competition is even thinner beyond the “Big 3.” In Canada, there are only two major airlines—WestJet and Air Canada. In Europe, Air France–KLM, British Airways IAG, and Lufthansa control the bulk of the market, though budget airlines still offer a bit of relief for travelers.
That reduced competition matters more than it sounds. When only one or two airlines are serving a route, they know passengers don’t have many alternate options. Misryoum editorial team stated that means airlines have less incentive to run low fares just to win business.
Second, there’s fuel. Back in 2017, jet fuel cost $1.37 per gallon. In 2024, it is $6.49 per gallon. Airlines have simply passed that fivefold increase on to the consumer. And then there are taxes and security fees, which have also increased a lot. Ever fly into London? Misryoum’s analysis indicates that in some cases, half the ticket price is made up of fees and taxes—so even if the base fare looks “reasonable,” the total can balloon.
There’s also the demand-and-supply shift. After the 2008 recession, demand fell, and airlines reduced both the number of routes and the frequency of flights. Fuller planes mean more passenger revenue and fewer costs. That trend accelerated during COVID. When COVID shut down global travel, airlines mothballed many of their older planes and laid off many of their staff. When restrictions lifted and travel surged again, there weren’t enough planes or staff to return to a pre-COVID schedule. Less supply of flights plus higher demand—then you get a market where airlines don’t feel much pressure to cut prices.
On top of all that, Misryoum newsroom pointed to how airlines actually determine pricing day-to-day. Prices go up and down based on four major factors: competition, supply, demand, and oil prices. Together, those feed into the “load factor,” basically the percentage of seats sold on a flight—an airline wants that number as high as possible. To chase it, airlines constantly change prices using dynamic pricing models and artificial intelligence (AI) to estimate the maximum value they can get for each seat. Misryoum editorial desk noted that when demand spikes after big events, it often looks like airlines “decide” to raise fares, but the systems are reacting to sky-high demand.
It also explains why you can see odd timing differences—like flights being cheaper around 5 AM, more expensive over holidays, and especially pricey during peak season or when a major sports event is happening. Even price changes in seconds aren’t about tracking your cookies; it’s the AI responding to real-time changes in seats and booking patterns across multiple channels. In the US, Misryoum’s desk says domestic flights can show 10–15 different price points. Lower demand means more cheap-fare availability; higher demand means higher prices, and when demand cools, they lower prices until seats thin out again.
One small detail I remember from actually watching these fares shift: it’s the moment the loading spinner in your booking tab stops—then the price pops up again, like it heard you thinking. Not dramatic, but it’s the clearest reminder that the ticket you’re watching is part of a moving target.
But there’s one practical takeaway. Misryoum analysis suggests it’s not impossible to find a cheap ticket—flexibility is the main lever. Airlines keep managing bottom price points about three months before, so if you’re booking inside a month, you’re often “playing into the airline’s hands.” When your dates aren’t flexible, you pay whatever they charge. And the bottom line, according to Misryoum’s travel desk: the days of cheap airfares are long over, and prices you see now are likely the new normal—especially if you don’t catch that sweet spot when prices are at their lowest.
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