Misryoum reports that BofA says consumer spending and AI capex are key US growth drivers, but an Iran war could disrupt both.
US economic growth is being held up by just two forces, and the risk is that an Iran conflict could unsettle both.
Misryoum reports that Bank of America points to consumer spending and AI-related capital spending as the main engines behind recent momentum.. In its view. both trends can continue to support growth. but the Iran war poses a serious headwind by raising the odds of higher inflation and tightening parts of the energy supply chain.
The key issue is not just the geopolitical shock itself, but how quickly it can ripple into everyday prices and into the infrastructure AI companies rely on.
Bank of America’s framework centers on “two tailwinds, one risk.” The first tailwind is AI spending.. Big technology companies are investing heavily in computing capacity, including data centers and the hardware needed to run AI systems.. Misryoum notes that this wave of investment is expected to keep contributing to economic activity as firms compete for the compute needed to scale new applications.
The second tailwind is the consumer. Even as sentiment has weakened, spending has continued to hold up, with strength showing up in services. Misryoum says this matters because consumer demand has been a stabilizing force that helps keep the broader economy from slowing too quickly.
In this setup, AI capex and consumer demand act like two pillars: when both stand, growth looks steadier; when one wobbles, the economy becomes more dependent on the other to carry the load.
But the “one risk” is the Iran war and the way it can translate into macroeconomic pressure. Misryoum reports that a major transmission channel is energy markets. Oil-price volatility and supply disruptions can quickly feed into inflation, and inflation tends to erode purchasing power over time.
There is also a more indirect channel for AI. As AI demand rises, companies need dependable energy and power delivery to keep data center expansion on track. Misryoum notes that if energy supply becomes constrained, it can create bottlenecks that complicate or slow investment plans.
That means the impact could show up twice: first through higher costs for households at the checkout, and then through higher friction for businesses scaling AI infrastructure.
At the same time, Misryoum highlights that the outlook depends on how long disruptions last and whether prices remain elevated. If inflation pressures intensify beyond energy alone, consumers could face a broader second wave of cost increases across essentials.
For investors and businesses, the message is straightforward: watch energy-market dynamics and inflation expectations as closely as headline growth numbers, because they determine whether the consumer and AI tailwinds remain in sync or start pulling in opposite directions.