Trump’s Last-Minute Endorsement Boosts Netanyahu, but Polls Show an Uphill Battle
TEL AVIV — U.S. President Donald Trump has handed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a prominent campaign boost with a last-minute endorsement ahead of next week’s parliamentary election, though fresh opinion surveys indicate the gesture may arrive too late to alter a difficult political landscape.
Netanyahu’s governing coalition held 60 of the 120 seats in the Knesset before parliament was dissolved in July, but recent polling suggests his bloc’s standing has eroded. A Walla survey published Tuesday projected just 48 seats for Netanyahu and his allies, leaving them 13 short of the 61 seats required to form a government. A separate Channel 12 poll estimated his bloc would secure 51 seats. Meanwhile, the Walla survey showed the party of Netanyahu’s main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, widening its lead over the prime minister’s Likud party by four seats, with neither major political bloc securing an outright majority.
Political analysts remain skeptical that foreign backing alone can overcome persistent domestic hurdles. Veteran pollster Dahlia Scheindlin noted that Netanyahu’s coalition poll numbers have remained stuck well below a majority for two years, adding that it looks unlikely Trump alone can help him make up such significant ground when other strategies have fallen short. Michael Oren, who served as Israel’s ambassador to the United States from 2009 to 2013, suggested the endorsement might gain Netanyahu one additional seat, but noted it would have had a substantially larger impact six or seven months ago amid public dissatisfaction over the outcome of the U.S. military campaign against Iran.
Trump continues to enjoy high popularity among Jewish Israelis, with a June Pew Research Center survey indicating that 79% of respondents expressed confidence in his handling of international affairs. That reception contrasts sharply with his standing inside the United States, where domestic economic fallout from the conflict with Iran has driven his domestic polling to historic lows. Netanyahu has long presented his ties with the U.S. president as a major political asset, building on a record that includes recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the U.S. Embassy there, brokering the Abraham Accords, and maintaining a hard line against Iran.
The prime minister has not forged a similar closeness with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who declined to endorse Netanyahu on Monday, stating that he was not getting involved in Israeli elections. Oren predicted the non-endorsement would have no direct impact on Israeli voters, though he criticized Vance for applying a double standard by pointing to the vice president’s appearance at a rally in Budapest alongside former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in April.
Other political figures view Trump’s intervention as potentially decisive in a nation where relations with Washington remain a central electoral consideration. A survey by the Israel Democracy Institute found that half of respondents view the alliance with the United States as an important factor when deciding which party to support.
The endorsement caught several experienced political observers and American diplomats by surprise. A senior U.S. diplomat, speaking anonymously, stated there had been no prior indication of the announcement. The move followed public friction between Washington and the Israeli government regarding extremist settler violence in the West Bank. Just a day before the endorsement, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee condemned a physical attack on American photojournalist Heidi Levine, calling it a despicable act of terror carried out by masked cowards and demanding arrests and prosecutions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio similarly urged Israeli authorities to take decisive action against such violence.
Prior to Trump’s announcement, emerging political figure Yonatan Shalev accused Netanyahu’s administration of pushing the country toward diplomatic estrangement, pointing to growing international isolation. Shalev, 24, holds a favorable position on the candidate list for Beyachad, an electoral alliance led by former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, and is positioned to potentially enter the Knesset following Tuesday’s vote.
In his endorsement posted to Truth Social, Trump praised Netanyahu as a great warrior prime minister and an essential partner for peace in confronting Iran. The statement offers Netanyahu a counterweight against critics who argue his policies have strained ties with Washington. However, Scheindlin noted that opponents can still point to Netanyahu’s failure to secure a meeting with Trump during the United Nations General Assembly in New York last month, Washington’s insistence on ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon, and recent international sanctions from 12 countries as evidence of gathering diplomatic isolation.
As the election approaches, the immediate logistical question for Likud officials is whether there remains sufficient time to deploy giant campaign billboards featuring the prime minister alongside Trump—imagery the party utilized effectively during the 2019 election cycle.
