Misryoum reports that inflation-adjusted teacher pay has declined, while enrollment and funding shares keep shifting.
Teacher pay growth is looking far less encouraging once inflation is taken into account, according to new findings highlighted by Misryoum.
The report estimates average teacher salaries for 2026 using state education projections, then compares them with 2017 pay levels.. In current dollars. salaries appear to rise over the decade. but after adjusting for inflation. the researchers estimate that teachers’ real earnings have declined by nearly 5%.. Misryoum notes a key caveat: the figures are not adjusted for cost-of-living differences between regions, which can be substantial.
This gap matters because it reframes “pay raises” as potentially insufficient to maintain living standards, especially in places where housing and everyday expenses grow faster than wages.
Among state outcomes, Washington stands out in the report’s inflation-adjusted comparisons, showing a markedly higher increase in teacher pay since 2017. The same analysis also points to how policy and court-level action can shape funding decisions, which ultimately flow through to compensation.
Looking at newer teachers, Misryoum reports that average starting salaries rose nationally in 2024–25, but real growth lagged after inflation.. The distribution is uneven: some states show comparatively higher starting pay levels. while others remain near the bottom. again without accounting for local price differences.. For school support staff. including roles like custodians. cafeteria workers. paraeducators. bus drivers. and security personnel. the report also indicates a more complicated picture once inflation and a longer timeline are considered.
Meanwhile, the findings suggest collective bargaining is associated with higher starting and top salaries.. Misryoum adds that in states with collective bargaining laws. starting salaries and top-end pay appear higher on average. though the report cautions that the data available does not prove a direct cause-and-effect relationship.. It also notes that most districts operate within states that allow some form of bargaining. while only a small number of states explicitly prohibit bargaining for teachers.
Beyond pay, Misryoum reports that student enrollment is continuing a slow decline.. Public schools enrolled nearly 49 million students at the start of 2024–25. a small year-over-year decrease. but the longer view shows a steeper drop since 2016.. The report also estimates another decline into the current school year, alongside variation in student-to-teacher ratios across states.
Finally, the analysis on funding underscores how education budgets are largely shaped by state and local revenue.. Misryoum notes that federal funding represents a relatively small share of total school revenue and has shifted as federal COVID-era support winds down.. In this context. even small changes in inflation. enrollment. or local tax capacity can ripple into staffing stability and pay competitiveness.
At a time when educators are weighing whether their wages reflect the demands of the job, Misryoum’s reporting suggests the debate is no longer only about whether pay rises, but whether it keeps pace with the cost of living, district funding realities, and shifting student populations.