SpaceX stock – SpaceX shares have surged 50% from recent lows, fueling a renewed rally. While investor sentiment is climbing, shifting volatility suggests a different path forward for the rocket maker.
The screens at the Nasdaq 100 hit all-time highs this week. but all eyes are locked on the rocket maker that has suddenly returned to the center of the trading floor. After Monday’s 8% rally brought the share price to $171. SpaceX has reclaimed its IPO price and pushed Elon Musk back into the trillionaire bracket. The momentum is undeniable. yet the nature of this surge looks fundamentally different from the frantic debut seen earlier this summer.
Institutional confidence is keeping pace with the retail frenzy. Adam Jonas. an analyst at Morgan Stanley. reiterated a $300 price target for the company on Monday. buoyed by the technical achievement of the Falcon 9 rocket. which successfully delivered four astronauts to the International Space Station in under eight hours last Thursday. This milestone set a new record. signaling operational stability even as the stock market begins to treat the company as a centerpiece of the ‘Space and Intelligence Economy.’.
Inside the options pits, the action has been aggressive. Monday saw 1.7 million contracts change hands—double the 30-day average—with a total value of $900 million. Call options accounted for 1 million of those contracts, valued at more than $640 million. Traders are clearly betting on the upside, yet the mechanics of the market have shifted. During its June debut, the stock rocketed from $171 to an intraday high above $225 in less than three sessions. Back then, implied volatility sat at over 110. Today, that figure is at 55.
This drop in volatility implies that the explosive. rapid-fire gains of the summer are unlikely to repeat without a significant change in pace. Market-makers are now assigning less than a 50% probability that the stock will touch $225 at any point before July. For the immediate future, expectations are more tempered, with a 54% chance of hitting $185 by the end of this month.
The sentiment within the options market also reveals a newfound sense of caution. Unlike tech giants like Nvidia. where investors often pay a premium for calls out of a fear of missing out. SpaceX is seeing a more balanced outlook. Market-makers are assigning equal or higher implied volatility to puts. suggesting that traders are weighing the possibility of a sharp downside swing just as heavily as an upward surge. Despite this hedging, the net flow remains optimistic: traders bought roughly 456,000 calls against 240,000 puts, while selling 295,000 calls and 250,000 puts.
There is a deepening connection between SpaceX and Tesla that seasoned traders are watching closely. The two companies now share a 30-day correlation of 0.66, moving in closer sync as the year closes out. For those at the front lines, like Chicago-based technical trader Charles Moon of Prosper Trading Academy, the shift is clear. He notes that while Starship has played a role. Wall Street’s heavy piling in since the start of Q4 has turned the stock into a vehicle that effectively feeds off the energy of the broader Musk ecosystem.
SpaceX Elon Musk stock market Nasdaq 100 options trading Tesla finance aerospace