Once considered a safe Republican stronghold, the South Carolina Senate race has tightened significantly, prompting a $5 million influx from the Senate GOP and a shift in national ratings.
For decades. the path to a Senate seat in South Carolina has been etched in stone: a Republican nomination was virtually a guarantee of victory. But as the 2026 midterms approach. that baseline of political certainty is showing cracks. turning a ruby-red state into an unexpected electoral battleground.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the race from Safe to Likely Republican on Tuesday. a signal that Senator Darline Graham’s defense of the seat is becoming more arduous than party strategists anticipated. The vacancy opened in July following the death of longtime Senator Lindsey Graham. Darline Graham. the late senator’s relative who has served in the chamber for over 20 years. secured the GOP nomination in a swift primary bolstered by a Donald Trump endorsement. Now, she faces pediatrician Annie Andrews, who previously ran for Congress in 2022.
Recent polling reveals the tightening margins. An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1. 200 likely voters conducted September 28–29 showed Graham leading by just a single percentage point. 46 to 45 percent. with a margin of error of 2.83 points. A Trafalgar Group poll from September 23–25 mirrored that outcome. placing Graham at 43 percent to Andrews’ 42 percent within a 2.9-point margin of error. Even an earlier September survey by InsiderAdvantage showed the Republican incumbent leading by only two points.
The scramble to secure the seat has brought national heavyweights to the state. The Senate Leadership Fund is pouring $5 million into the race to bolster Graham’s position in the final weeks. Both Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader John Thune are scheduled to campaign in the state. Trump recently took to Truth Social to attack Andrews, using a slur to describe the Democratic candidate. Andrews. responding to the comments via Greenville-based station WYFF. dismissed the rhetoric as a deliberate distraction. stating. “I am a disciplined. hard-working candidate who is outhustling and out-fundraising my opponent. That’s why national figures like the President are getting involved.”.
This cycle. Democrats are betting that a decline in Trump’s approval ratings—fueled by voter frustrations over inflation. the economy. and the war in Iran—will allow them to gain traction in conservative states previously written off as unreachable. While South Carolina has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 and backed Trump by 18 points in 2024. the party is hoping to capitalize on a referendum-style mood in the midterms. Historically, the president’s party faces headwinds in these contests, yet analysts J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik noted that while the race is competitive. Graham should ultimately benefit from the state’s baseline partisanship.
The challenge for Andrews remains historic. The state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1998, and Republican candidates have maintained double-digit victory margins for years. While Democrats hold a solid floor in cities like Charleston and Columbia. the conservative strongholds of Greenville. Myrtle Beach. and rural regions present a steep climb.
With early voting set to begin on October 19 and run through October 31, the campaigns are preparing for a critical test. On October 11 at 7 p.m. Graham and Andrews are scheduled to face off in a debate broadcast by South Carolina ETV and Public Radio. Libertarian candidate Kasie Whitener is also set to participate. Despite the narrowed polling. financial markets remain confident in the incumbent; as of now. betting platforms Kalshi and Polymarket assign Graham an 86 percent and 84 percent probability of victory. respectively.
South Carolina Senate race Darline Graham Annie Andrews 2026 midterms US politics