Storms are rolling through Iowa again, and the state’s weather watchers are keeping a close eye on Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
For much of central Iowa, Misryoum newsroom reporting says the setup is messy but not necessarily “worst-case” right this moment. With the system moving through, it sounds like, weather-wise, there isn’t severe weather ongoing—good news, especially across central parts of the state. Still, there’s that one cluster to the north and northeast, and it’s been producing enough hail sightings to make people pause and check the sky.
Earlier, hard rain and thunder were accompanied by hail reports that people didn’t easily forget. Misryoum newsroom reporting described hail around Hardin County—at one point, pictures were shown of hailstones possibly about four inches across near Hubbard, and other reports matched hail ranging from ping-pong to golf-ball size in Hardin and Grundy counties. One of the more vivid local moments was the kind that sticks in your head: someone looking out from their porch area, noticing the “board” deck being hit. It’s the sound you don’t really forget—quick, sharp taps that turn into a steady rattle for a while.
The bigger caution is what’s still officially active. Misryoum newsroom reported that a severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for parts of Hardin, Franklin, Grundy and Butler counties until 5:45 p.m. Trained weather spotters have located a storm capable of 60 mph winds and quarter sized hail. At the same time, a tornado watch is in effect until 10 p.m. for much of central and eastern Iowa, including counties such as Allamakee, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buchanan, Butler, Cedar, Chickasaw, Clayton, Clinton, Dallas, Delaware, Dubuque, Fayette, Floyd, Franklin, Grundy, Hamilton, Hardin, Howard, Iowa, Jackson, Jasper, Johnson, Jones, Keokuk, Linn, Madison, Mahaska, Marion, Marshall, Muscatine, Polk, Poweshiek, Scott, Story, Tama, Warren, Washington and Winneshiek.
So what should people actually watch for Tuesday? Misryoum editorial desk noted that storms are most likely near and south of the stalled front, especially east of I-35. The fuel is there—high humidity, temperatures in the mid-80s south of the boundary—and storms could form as early as 2 to 4 p.m. near and just east of I-35. Once they start, the worry is speed and intensity: storms can intensify quickly and bring the potential for very large damaging hail, high winds, and some tornado risk. Misryoum analysis also emphasizes that the main question is how many storms “fire up” in the first place; it’s possible only a couple develop, keeping the severe risk more isolated, but that doesn’t make it harmless if one does.
Misryoum newsroom reporting also points to what happens after the afternoon. As storms push into eastern Iowa, the risk increases—this is where the very large hail threat, potentially to around 3 inches, and the tornado risk will be highest. There’s even mention of a second area later tonight in southern Iowa: increasing southerly flow may help create another wave spreading south to north. Because those would be overnight, Misryoum editorial team stated the severe risk is low, though heavy rainfall and some small hail could still pop up.
Then, just when people think they can exhale, Wednesday brings back a threat—especially for southern and eastern Iowa. Misryoum newsroom reported severe storm potential returns with a low chance for a few storms in the morning, and then a stronger round possible in the afternoon and evening. It’s not expected to be as high a risk as what’s earlier today, but there’s still a window until 10 p.m., with large hail and possibly damaging winds; tornadoes are possible only if storms go “just wrong” in the right way. After that, Thursday is expected to be dry, Friday brings heat, wind, and more widespread afternoon storms, and Saturday cools down with clouds lingering and temperatures around 50—plus gusty northwest winds. And yeah, the week’s not done with surprises yet, but Tuesday is clearly the day to stay ready.
Severe storms possible Tuesday evening