New Poll Places Opportunity in Kingmaker Role Amid Electoral Overhang Scrutiny
A fresh 1News-Verian poll released ahead of polling day places the minor party Opportunity in a pivotal kingmaker role, projecting it to secure seven seats in parliament. According to the survey figures, Labour is positioned to claim 35 seats and the Greens 20 seats, while Te Pāti Māori’s total remains contingent on electorate wins with an expected three to five seats, a result that could trigger a parliamentary overhang on the left side of the political spectrum.
Those projected numbers would give Opportunity decisive leverage unless the National Party triggers an overhang on the right, a possibility that certain campaigners have actively advocated for. National leader Christopher Luxon saw his preferred Prime Minister rating slip one point to 23%, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins ticked up a point to 19%. On the final Tuesday of the campaign trail, Luxon toured the top of the South Island before concluding his day in Wellington to watch the Melbourne Cup. He is scheduled to leave Wellington Wednesday morning for a North Island bus tour concluding in Auckland.
Meanwhile, campaign tactics and electoral regulations drew intense scrutiny on Tuesday. Luxon declined to comment on police confirming an investigation into businessman Harry Mowbray’s vote-splitting campaign, which was referred by the Electoral Commission. Mowbray told the Post he believed the referral stemmed from a delayed response to the commission regarding his campaign website. The National Party had formally complained about the effort, with a spokesperson calling it a deliberate attempt to confuse voters. Luxon maintained that since the matter is before the police, he would leave it there.
Te Pāti Māori may face its own regulatory hurdles with the Electoral Commission over advertisements encouraging voters to split their ballots. Electoral rules dictate that ads urging support for a specific party require that party’s authorization. On Tuesday evening, the Labour Party confirmed it never granted Te Pāti Māori permission to feature an ad on its website instructing supporters to cast their party vote for Labour or the Greens. Te Pāti Māori and the Greens were approached for comment regarding the potential breach.
Labour figures spent Tuesday pressing a strategic advantage in tight electorates. Hipkins conducted morning interviews in Auckland before traveling south to Hamilton, with plans to campaign alongside Sophie Handford in Kāpiti on Wednesday. Labour has rolled out targeted advertisements in competitive races warning green voters that candidate votes for the Greens could inadvertently help National secure power. Addressing National’s persistent claims that he would capitulate to tax policies proposed by smaller left-leaning parties, Hipkins adopted a hard line, stating ‘yes’ when asked if he would resign rather than introduce new taxes beyond Labour’s proposed capital gains tax.
Elsewhere on the trail, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters conducted a mall walkabout in Auckland, where he remains stationed for Wednesday. The Greens also campaigned in Auckland, where co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick called for an official investigation if any government is ultimately elected via an engineered parliamentary overhang. ACT Party leader David Seymour continued a North Island bus tour centered primarily on healthcare policy. Opportunity candidate Quilae Wong campaigned in Christchurch and is set for Wellington on Wednesday.
Wong continued to address questions regarding the influence of major donor and board member Alan ‘AJ’ Wilderland. Wilderland previously remarked to reporters that Labour and the Greens might prove easier coalition partners than New Zealand First, comments widely interpreted as pointing toward a left-bloc alliance. Wong maintained those remarks represented Wilderland’s personal view and noted he is not part of the official negotiation team, though she confirmed the party board, which includes Wilderland, holds final sign-off authority on any coalition agreement.
The underlying 1News-Verian poll surveyed 1,000 eligible voters via telephone and online panel between October 29 and November 2, carrying a maximum sampling error of approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
