Near 50% of California teachers may quit within 10 years—what’s driving morale
A new survey finds nearly half of California teachers plan to retire or leave within a decade, with work schedules and classroom conditions—not just pay—at the center of declining morale.
Nearly half of California teachers say they may retire or quit within the next 10 years, pointing to a growing risk for schools already stretched by shortages.
The findings come from a nationwide teacher survey of 5. 802 educators. released as part of Education Week’s annual “The State of Teaching” report.. While California teachers show slightly higher morale than the overall U.S.. average. the state’s share of teachers planning to leave the profession in the next decade is still striking: nearly half. compared with an estimated 35% nationwide.
Why morale is sliding—and why California stands out
In the Teacher Morale Index, which ranges from -100 to +100, California educators scored 16, while the U.S.. average was 13.. That gap is small. but it matters in a labor market where districts can’t easily replace experienced teachers—especially in hard-to-fill roles like special education. science. technology. engineering. and math. as well as bilingual education.
For students, morale is not just a workplace statistic.. A teacher’s daily mood affects classroom climate, patience, and how quickly instruction can move past disruption.. One Bay Area social science teacher described the connection directly: when morale is higher. students are more likely to feel comfortable learning; when morale is low. that positive momentum can erode.
Classroom time pressure and behavior pressures
Improving student behavior was listed as the second most important factor for morale, and the concern appears widespread.. Across elementary, middle, and high schools, majorities of teachers reported that behavior is getting worse.. The report connects these discipline challenges to a “perfect storm” that includes learning disruptions during the pandemic and the aftermath—when schools returned to in-person instruction but still worked through how to rebuild routines and expectations.
There’s also the policy and implementation layer.. The report notes that restorative justice approaches have been used in many settings. but teachers said messaging and resources have not always matched the change.. In plain terms. teachers describe being asked to manage tough behavior with systems that sometimes arrive without the tools or training needed to make them work consistently.
What teachers want: fewer disruptions. smaller classes. workable schedules
Smaller class sizes were another recurring theme.. Teachers generally agreed on a “ideal” class size of 19 students.. California teachers. however. identified that their realistic desired range should be between 20 and 24 students—while the survey also suggests California class sizes average around 29 students. higher than the national average of 25.
Work schedules may be the most revealing finding in the report.. The morale gap between teachers who felt their work schedule was better than it was for their friends and family. and those who did not. was far larger than the gap often associated with pay.. In other words. for many teachers. control over time and energy—how long a day stretches. when planning can happen. and how work spills into personal life—can matter as much as compensation.
Pay matters less than people think—at least for morale
But researchers did not find a direct correlation between salary levels and morale.. Instead. there’s a more human comparison effect: educators who felt their pay matched or exceeded that of peers close to them reported higher morale.. That suggests morale responds not only to income. but to fairness. relative standing. and the sense that teaching is valued in the same way as other professions.
A bigger challenge than one state’s schools
The report also traces the decline to a timeline educators will recognize: morale began weakening during the pandemic. then faced additional stress when schools reopened and instruction returned to full classroom demands.. That history helps explain why the “wish list” is not limited to compensation—teachers are asking for time. stability. and classroom conditions that make the job manageable again.
For education leaders, the most practical takeaway may be that staffing retention isn’t solved by one lever.. Planning time. behavior supports. enforceable classroom norms. and more workable schedules point toward operational changes—often within districts’ control—that could slow exits.. If these pressures don’t ease. the state’s risk isn’t just a future shortage; it’s a near-term drain on experience. continuity. and student support.