Canadian tourism – New University of Toronto data shows steep declines in Canadian visits to US cities amid tariff tensions and talk of annexation.
A sharp drop in Canadian tourism is rippling across the United States, hitting everything from vacation economies to big-city business travel as political tensions between the neighbors continue to harden.
The new report. produced by the University of Toronto. finds Canadian tourism to US cities fell dramatically during a period of rising friction between Washington and Ottawa.. The study highlights that the downturn is not confined to leisure travelers or “snowbirds. ” but also shows signs of reduced activity tied to work trips and broader economic connections.
Overall, the data indicates US cities saw declines in Canadian tourism of up to 65 percent. It comes as the relationship between the countries has frayed amid President Donald Trump’s tariff policy toward Canada and repeated rhetoric that raised the prospect of Canada becoming the 51st US state.
In a sign of how uneven the impact can be. the researchers found that major metropolitan areas experienced a 42 percent decrease in Canadian visits.. That figure was notably higher than border crossing estimates, which had shown a 25 percent decline.. The report suggests border data may be missing part of the story—either because Canadians are traveling to fewer locations within the US. spending less time across the border. or both.
The steepest losses are concentrated in certain regions.. Cities across the Sun Belt—many of which rely heavily on tourism—along with Northeast areas closer to the Canadian border. saw the largest drops.. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, recorded the biggest decline at 65.4 percent among cities examined in the report.
The study’s next-largest declines included Yuma. Arizona; Panama City. Florida; Brownsville. Texas; Orlando. Florida; Cape Coral. Florida; Miami. Florida; San Francisco. California; North Port. Florida; and Palm Bay. Florida.. The top 20 also featured Providence. Rhode Island; New York City; Las Vegas. Nevada; Flint. Michigan; Deltona. Florida; Albany. New York; Port St.. Lucie, Florida; Barnstable, Massachusetts; and Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The report’s focus is grounded in how Canadians moved electronically.. The University of Toronto team. led by Karen Chapple. Yihoi Jung. and Jeff Allen. analyzed cell phone activity data to track Canadian presence in the US.. It compares April 2024 through March 2025 with April 2025 through March 2026. capturing a full year of travel patterns during the period when political tensions escalated.
Chapple told Newsweek that the decline reaches beyond sightseeing and retirement travel. Her account points to areas with deeper economic ties to Canada—places that are often hubs for sectors such as finance and technology—where the drop shows up as “dramatic” reductions in Canadian activity.
One reason, she suggested, is that Canadians may be changing how they handle business travel. Rather than flying for work, she said, some travelers may choose alternatives like remote meetings, particularly when travel becomes politically or economically less attractive.
The study also touches on the possibility of a shift in consumer behavior over time.. Boycotts were initially “very deep. ” Chapple said. though recent data over the past month indicates there may have been some form of a bounce back.. Still, she argued that a broader reversal is unlikely while tariffs remain in place.
Chapple linked the evolving travel pattern to how trade and business decisions are reshaping.. She noted that the Canadian government has been opening trade with other major economies. including China. India. and the European Union. and that this could encourage business travel to shift accordingly—consistent with what the researchers are seeing in the data.
Other academic perspective also points to the effectiveness of organized boycotts.. Vivek Astvansh. a professor of quantitative marketing at McGill University. said the report suggests boycotts described in social and news media did. in fact. work.. He added that the decline can be painful for US regions that depend on Canadian visitors.
A separate view of how the downturn could evolve was expressed by Astvansh as well.. He said he hopes the impact is temporary and described city-level graphs as largely stabilizing at low levels since October 2025.. He expects the trend to stay low until a new US government takes office. while warning that the suppression could last longer if relations between the two countries do not become “cordial” again.
The economic stakes are already documented in other research.. A previous report from the Centre for Economic Policy Research found a 25 percent decline in travel, with serious economic implications.. A US Travel Association report from February 2025 estimated that Canadian tourism generated $20.5 billion and supported 140,000 jobs in 2024.
That earlier analysis also framed what smaller changes can mean for local economies: it stated that a 10% reduction in Canadian travel could result in 2.0 million fewer visits. $2.1 billion in lost spending. and 14. 000 job losses.. Forbes has also reported that the US has faced a $4.5 billion economic blow tied to Canadian tourism boycotts.
At the core of the current downturn is a wider deterioration in US-Canada relations.. The two countries have long been economic allies, but strain has grown in recent years.. Weeks after Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election, he said he would implement 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
On January 20. 2025—the day he returned to office—Trump signed a memo urging Congress to “assess the unlawful migration and fentanyl flows from Canada” alongside other countries.. Tariff policy then shifted again in February 2025. when Trump announced tariffs on Canada before quickly pausing them after reaching a deal with Canadian leadership on border security.
Throughout the same period, Trump’s rhetoric toward Canada intensified. In a Truth Social post dated February 2, 2025, he argued that Canada should become the 51st state, framing the idea in terms of taxes, military protection, and the elimination of tariffs.
As the rhetoric mounted. boycotts of American goods began around the same time. creating potential risks on both sides of the border.. The Office of the U.S.. Trade Representative has estimated that the US exported $349.4 billion of goods to Canada in 2024. making Canada the largest export market for the US.
While the tariff timeline is complex, one key date is clear. Tariffs went into place on March 4. During the following months, many Canadians avoided popular tourist destinations over the summer, even as annexation talk resurfaced from time to time, according to the account.
Canada’s leaders have also criticized or scrutinized the rhetoric coming from the US. More than a year after tariffs began, there are growing concerns that boycotts could harden into longer-term patterns of consumer behavior rather than fading once tensions cool.
In April. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada should seek new investments and “new partnerships abroad” to sell into other markets while dealing with ongoing US tariffs.. He said the approach was tied to taking “back control” of security. borders. and the country’s future. adding that Canada cannot rely on a single foreign partner and cannot fully control the disruptions arriving from neighboring countries.
The data from the University of Toronto and the broader economic reporting underscore how political signals can quickly translate into real-world movement patterns—shaping where visitors go. how long they stay. and whether business travel is replaced by remote work.. For US communities that depend on Canadian customers. the challenge now is that the effects appear both regional and multifaceted. reflecting leisure demand and economic ties at the same time.
Canadian tourism US cities tariffs U.S.-Canada relations tourism economy travel boycotts