There’s a certain kind of buzz that shows up every time a new foldable rumor starts looping—like people can already smell the next iteration of sleek hardware. Right now, the conversation is all about an iPhone Fold that, according to a new market forecast highlighted by Misryoum newsroom reporting, could shake up the foldable pecking order fast.
The headline claim is pretty dramatic: Apple is projected to capture 46% of the foldable market in North America in its first year. If that number holds, Misryoum analysis indicates it would put immediate pressure on Motorola and Google, not as distant competitors but as companies suddenly squeezed in the same narrow lane.
What really makes the prediction sting is the flip side. Samsung’s share, the same Misryoum editorial desk noted forecast suggests, could decline from 51% in 2025 to 29% in 2026. That would be a strange outcome for a brand that’s helped define the category since it really took shape. Instead of leading, Samsung would be sitting in a minority position—unusual, and also… not impossible, but definitely not something you’d bet on without more context.
And still, I’m sitting here with doubts. I remember the first time I held the Galaxy Z Fold 7 last summer—there was this “wait, this is a foldable?” moment. When unfolded, the profile was svelte; when closed, it felt lightweight enough to almost fool you. That experience sets a high bar. If the iPhone Fold wants to win people over that quickly, it’s not enough to be exciting on paper. It has to feel right in the hand, day after day.
Misryoum newsroom reporting points to a creaseless design as a rumored direction for Apple, but design isn’t just about the absence of a crease. The iPhone Fold’s overall size and form factor will still be measured against whatever Samsung brings with the Galaxy Z Fold 8. Samsung has, after all, seven generations of book-style foldables under its belt, with each one nudging the experience forward—sometimes quietly, sometimes obviously. Apple can absolutely catch up, but the jump from “first attempt” to “dominant leader” is a big leap.
There’s also the problem of expectations. Misryoum editorial team stated the market-share projection feels too optimistic—especially when you remember what happened with iPhone Air hype. During Apple’s September event, the company clearly spent the most time on that new addition to the lineup, yet it didn’t become the sales driver many expected. Apple doesn’t release exact sales figures, sure, but Misryoum newsroom reporting notes that just roaming around New York City and seeing what phones people actually use can be… pretty telling. The iPhone Air, for me, was hard to live with as a daily driver, and not in a small way—battery compromises, plus settling for a single camera.
If the iPhone Fold lands in a similar “compromise first” zone, consumers might think twice before choosing it over flagship options like the iPhone 18 Pro or iPhone 18 Pro Max. And that brings us to the two factors Misryoum analysis insists Apple can’t ignore: software and price. A 7.8-inch screen is expected for the iPhone Fold, which means iOS 27—or whatever form it takes—can’t just stretch apps and call it a day. The Galaxy Z Fold line thrives because Samsung’s software actually leans into the form: multitasking that feels useful, plus Samsung DeX for a desktop-like experience. Misryoum editorial desk noted that WWDC 2026 could offer early hints about how Apple is refining iOS 27 for a bigger canvas, but matching the day-to-day utility of Galaxy Z Fold 7 is still a mountain.
Finally, pricing. Misryoum newsroom reported that the Galaxy Z TriFold effectively priced itself out of the market, and that’s a cautionary tale. If Apple launches the iPhone Fold substantially higher than expected—if it doesn’t at least match the Galaxy Z Fold 8’s price point—it could be rough. Capturing nearly half the market with a first-generation device is a monumental task. For now, I’m not convinced the forecast is wrong, exactly… I just think it’s betting on a version of reality that moves faster than consumer habits do.
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