A leading scientist at Misryoum warns 2026 could be the hottest year on record as El Niño builds on ongoing global warming.
A leading scientist is raising the stakes for this year’s climate outlook, warning that 2026 could become the hottest year on record.
The forecast centers on a key combination: long-term warming from greenhouse gases and the return of El Niño. a natural shift in the Pacific Ocean that tends to amplify global heat.. In this context. the temperature record most often cited is 2024. the year global averages first crossed the 1.5°C mark above pre-industrial levels.
Meanwhile. some of the scientific debate now focuses on timing and how much El Niño could boost temperatures before the year is out.. Misryoum reports that while the early part of 2026 has been influenced by La Niña. the cooling phase that precedes El Niño. the second half may see warming accelerate as El Niño develops across the equatorial Pacific.. Some projections described it as potentially especially strong, which could raise the odds of new temperature peaks.
Misryoum notes that predictions differ in method and confidence.. One approach suggests that 2026 may not just rank among the warmest years. but could already take the top spot. using ocean-related temperature signals less affected by short-term weather swings.. Others emphasize uncertainty on year-to-year timescales. arguing that even if warming is clearly continuing. it is still difficult to state outcomes with absolute certainty.
The importance of the dispute is not simply academic.. Even if 2026’s global average temperature falls short of “hottest year” status. El Niño can still intensify weather extremes. interacting with an already warming planet.. That means elevated risks for heatwaves. drought. and wildfire conditions across multiple regions. including parts of Australia and South-East Asia. central and southern Africa. India. and the Amazon.
This is why the science is keeping two ideas in view at once: the background trend of climate change and the added pressure from a likely El Niño. Their overlap is a recipe for more severe impacts, because the atmosphere and oceans are not starting from a neutral baseline.
By Misryoum’s account. researchers also point to another layer of concern: if the pace of warming is faster than some models suggest. it could reshape expectations for both near-term records and what comes after.. In other words. the heat itself is only part of the story; the rate at which it is accumulating determines how quickly risks can intensify.
At the end of the day. the message remains consistent: a warming world with an El Niño overlay is likely to bring more extreme events than people have grown accustomed to.. Misryoum stresses that whatever the exact ranking for 2026. the climate system is moving toward conditions that can be harder. not easier. to live with.