Over three years in office, Giorgia Meloni’s goals have not translated into major reforms, with setbacks in judiciary, migration and foreign policy concerns.
Giorgia Meloni’s rise in 2022 was watched across Europe as a test of whether Italy’s politics would fuel a wider populist surge, but more than three years later, her promised overhaul has met repeated limits.
When Meloni and her Brothers of Italy party won power. the campaign centered on anti-immigration measures. nationalist themes. and Euroskeptic positions.. At her inaugural speech in parliament. she pledged “bold decisions” meant to free what she called the “best energies of this nation. ” even if that brought clashes with Italian and international elites.. Her agenda included reforming bureaucracy. simplifying the legal system. and launching a “Copernican revolution” tied to a new Italian fiscal compact.
Yet critics argue that those objectives have not produced the kind of tangible, sweeping change that her rhetoric suggested.. Compared with other far-right and populist leaders. such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Argentina’s Javier Milei. Meloni adopted a more restrained approach both at home and abroad. aiming to balance nationalist goals with pragmatic governance.. Observers say that equilibrium, however, has left her reforms less incisive than initially promised.
This balance has also helped explain why her government has remained unusually stable by Italian standards.. In early September. Meloni’s administration will become the longest-lived government since World War II. and most polls continue to show she is Italy’s most popular political leader after President Sergio Mattarella.
Despite that stability, her leadership has faced sharp setbacks.. On March 23. Meloni’s government suffered a harsh defeat in a constitutional referendum on judiciary reform. a central element of her legislative program.. The vote’s technical nature. its timing a month into the Iran war. and her frequent media appearances to rally support turned it into what many saw as a popularity test. and she began to appear more vulnerable for the first time since taking office.
Soon after, political signals from both Europe and abroad added to the pressure.. On April 12. voters ousted Orban. after his long rule was marked by erosion of Hungary’s democratic institutions and strained European relationships.. Meloni had endorsed Orban in a video alongside other right-wing figures. including Germany’s Alice Weidel. France’s Marine Le Pen. and Spain’s Santiago Abascal.. A few days later, U.S.. President Donald Trump publicly scolded Meloni in an interview. criticizing her refusal to support the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.. And on April 21. Meloni was forced to accept changes to a contested migrant repatriation bill after pressure from Italy’s presidency.
After the referendum defeat, Meloni defended her record in her first major speech in parliament on April 9.. She pointed to measures approved by her government. including small tax cuts. simplification of Italy’s tax system. increased police hiring. higher jail terms for certain crimes. a raise in minimum pensions. and steps against illegal immigration.. At the same time. she acknowledged more work was needed. telling lawmakers that conditions are better than when her government took office but that further progress would follow as the administration “roll[s] up [its] sleeves.”
Still, analysts have questioned whether Meloni has been able to shift Italy’s underlying trajectory, particularly on the economy.. Italy’s GDP grew 4.8 percent in the year she took office. aided largely by recovery from the COVID-19 contraction and policies from previous governments.. But growth slowed to 0.9 percent in 2023, 0.8 percent in 2024, and 0.5 percent last year.. At the same time. unemployment reached a low not seen in 20 years. at 5.1 percent as of January. down from 8 percent when she entered office. while employment rates remained mostly stable.
In this context, the gap between political stability and policy impact is part of what shapes the debate around Meloni now. Her approach may be holding the government together, but the question is whether it delivers structural change fast enough for voters and for Italy’s economic constraints.
Energy shocks tied to the Iran war have also complicated economic conditions. On April 22, Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti announced Italy had cut its economic growth outlook and raised forecasts for the budget deficit and public debt.
On migration, Meloni’s record shows the same pattern of partial moves and stalled proposals.. Her nationalist approach includes expanding detention centers and curtailing humanitarian protection. and listing countries such as Egypt. Tunisia. and Senegal as “safe. ” despite legal restrictions in those states. including the fact that homosexuality remains criminalized in all three.. She also promised to crack down on migrant traffickers and to establish a naval blockade, neither of which has happened.
Meanwhile, there are policy efforts viewed as more pragmatic.. In 2023. Meloni’s government persuaded the European Union to grant financial aid to Tunisia aimed at preventing migrants from crossing the Mediterranean.. The measure helped reduce arrivals of irregular migrants to 67,000 and 66,000 in 2024 and 2025, down from nearly 158,000 in 2023.. Regular migration increased in 2023 and 2024, with arrivals including Ukrainian asylum-seekers.
Plans to process asylum-seekers in centers in Albania have also been blocked multiple times by national courts and. so far. appear to have become a legal and financial problem.. Even so. some argue her messaging has influenced EU policy. with the EU recently approving tougher asylum rules for irregular migrants.. Detention centers like those proposed for Albania are seen. in this framing. as a way to deter irregular arrivals by removing a “pull factor. ” where rescued migrants might otherwise move freely within Europe.
Foreign policy has likewise been shaped by a mix of positioning and limits.. A notable element has been Meloni’s relationship with U.S.. President Donald Trump. with whom she is said to share ideological affinities. and her effort to present herself as a reformed Euroskeptic to European leaders.. However, the widening gap between the U.S.. and Europe has made that balancing act more difficult. and Trump’s unpopularity at home has been cited by pollsters as one factor in why Meloni lost the constitutional referendum.
Critics also argue that the investment in Trump’s friendship has produced limited returns beyond a few specific outcomes. including persuading Washington not to impose heavy tariffs on Italian pasta and securing Trump’s approval for a prisoner swap involving an Italian journalist held in Iran and an Iranian businessman sought by the United States.. Even after Meloni tried to distance herself from Trump. including by branding his attacks on Pope Leo as unacceptable. the U.S.. president took note. telling an Italian newspaper that he was “shocked” by her and saying he had thought she had courage but was “wrong.”
Meloni’s political vulnerability is now seen as strengthening the opposition. though it remains fragmented and has not yet built a single counter-narrative.. One reported move on the center-left side is beginning talks about organizing a primary election to select a coalition leader before the 2027 parliamentary elections. with debate still ongoing about aligning on a shared program and election strategy prior to naming that leader.
The broader takeaway is that Meloni’s method has delivered unusual government continuity, but the price may be a slower pace of transformation at a moment when Italy faces economic headwinds and shifting political dynamics.
Her capacity to translate control into lasting change remains at the center of the next phase of her term.. While she is still more popular than opposition leaders. recent setbacks are described as leaving her facing a more challenging final year. heightening concerns about coalition electoral performance next year.. With Italy’s budget deficit reported at 3.1 percent of GDP last year. limited spending room is also expected to restrict policy flexibility ahead of the 2027 elections.. In the end. Meloni’s centralization of power and highly personal narrative have projected solidity. but observers say those traits may have made her less effective than her earlier promises suggested.