More than 5.4 million Floridians have already cast ballots ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections, representing 38.2% of the state’s 13.7 million registered voters, according to data from the Florida Division of Elections.
As polls prepare to open statewide, early voting figures indicate that Democrats have recorded a higher share of turnout among registered party members compared to Republicans, while conservative campaigns look toward a robust Election Day surge.
As of Monday, approximately 5.4 million ballots had been submitted either by mail or through in-person early voting sites. Among registered Democrats, the turnout rate reached 49%, comprising about 832,000 mail-in ballots and nearly 1.2 million votes cast during early voting periods. Republicans logged a 38.2% turnout rate, with approximately 679,000 mail ballots and 1.5 million in-person votes. Voters registered with no party affiliation accounted for 3.3 million of the electorate, seeing 31% participation through just over 382,000 mail-in votes and nearly 669,000 in-person early votes.
The early vote volume accounts for 69% of Florida’s total turnout from the 2022 midterm elections and 62% of participation during the 2018 midterms. Final turnout figures and election outcomes remain undecided, and uncertainty surrounds how many unaffiliated or unvoted registrants will participate on Tuesday, particularly among Republicans.
Political history in the state shows Republicans maintaining control of the Florida Legislature since 1996 and the governor’s office since 1999. Although Republicans did not overtake Democrats in total voter registration until 2021, they currently hold a 1.5 million voter registration advantage. The last Democrat to secure a statewide election victory was Nikki Fried, who won the agriculture commissioner race in 2018 and now leads the Florida Democratic Party. In the 2022 midterms, Republican total turnout surpassed Democratic participation by roughly 600,000 votes.
Party leaders expressed contrasting expectations heading into the final day of voting. Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried pointed to early returns as evidence of broader voter engagement. In an emailed fundraising appeal circulated Monday, Fried stated that Democrats are showing up at rates unseen in years across every county in the state, expressing confidence that maintaining that energy on Election Day could shift political momentum.
On the Republican side, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, running for governor, expressed confidence in his party’s ground game and anticipated heavy conservative turnout on Tuesday. Speaking on a podcast appearance with the News Service of Florida, Donalds said his campaign was proud of its efforts and anticipated that large numbers of Republican voters would head to the polls on Election Day.
State polling locations will operate from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time on Tuesday. County election officials are scheduled to begin releasing mail-in and early voting totals approximately 30 minutes after polls close. The state Division of Elections anticipates publishing statewide tallies after 8 p.m. Eastern time, following the closure of polls at 7 p.m. Central time in the western Panhandle.
