A regional climate forum in Belize City warned that La Niña is fading and El Niño is taking hold, pointing to below-normal rains from May to July—raising stakes for planting and early warnings.
After three days of crunching climate and hydrological data, officials in Belize City left with one clear message: the rains between May and July may not come as strong as hoped.
The regional Climate and Hydrological Forum centered on a question that affects everyday decisions—what kind of rains are on the way, and how much uncertainty still remains.. With unusual showers already reported in April, experts said the pattern appears to be shifting as La Niña fades and El Niño gains influence.. The implication is uncomfortable but practical: a higher chance of drier conditions across Belize and parts of Central America.
Minister of Sustainable Development Orlando Habet said the timing matters because forecasts aren’t only about weather watching—they’re about preparation.. In a forum rotated across Central American countries, presenters shared information and experiences, with an added focus on how newer technologies and shared data can improve outlooks for climate and water.. He described the session’s end goal as building a broader, better picture early enough for decisions that can’t wait.
For Habet, the benefits stretch from hurricane readiness to the realities of the field.. Early warning systems depend on getting ahead of what the atmosphere is likely to do.. That means preparation has to start months in advance, not after a season has already turned.. He also linked the forecast directly to agriculture, where planting schedules and water expectations shape whether families can protect food security.
That connection to farming is where the warning becomes most immediate.. Belize’s Ministry of Agriculture said the May-to-July window is particularly important because it aligns with typical land preparation and key planting rhythms.. Director of Extension Andrew Mejia framed the forecast as a guide farmers can use—whether it suggests planting sooner, waiting longer, or adjusting harvest timing.
Mejia said below-normal rainfall for May, June, and July is the direction the outlook is leaning.. In past seasons, he noted, forecasts that encouraged early planting were sometimes followed by drought conditions.. The current caution, he said, is about learning from those gaps and making sure farmers are ready for the possibility of a dry stretch, especially if El Niño continues to strengthen.
To reduce the odds of being caught off guard, the ministry is partnering with the World Food Program and the National Meteorological Service of Belize under an “Anticipatory Action” project.. The focus is preparation for drought during the months most vulnerable to rainfall shortfalls.. Mejia said the approach relies on close working relationships with meteorological teams, and on the gradual improvement in forecast accuracy that has been seen over time.
There’s also a quieter benefit to the way the ministry is approaching the outlook: it gives farmers time to plan rather than react.. Planting is rarely one decision—it’s a sequence of tasks tied to labor, inputs, and expected returns.. When rainfall expectations shift, those tasks can ripple across a season.. A forecast that leans drier doesn’t eliminate farming; it changes how farmers may protect their livelihood—through timing, expectations, and support.
At the regional level, the shift from La Niña toward El Niño is the key driver behind the warning.. For readers, the takeaway is not just that rain may be less—it’s that the pattern could be harder to manage if planting begins under the assumption that early rain will automatically continue.. In that sense, the forum’s message is a reminder that climate signals are not forecasts in the “certainty” sense, but signals that help governments and communities make better bets.
The next few months will test those preparations. As May arrives, farmers and decision-makers will likely lean on the same shared outlook discussed in Belize City—using it to watch carefully, prepare earlier, and adjust when the season behaves differently than last year.