California superintendent – A new Misryoum roundup of PPIC polling finds low name recognition and no candidate near 10% support among likely voters—while strong majorities back teacher strikes, transitional kindergarten, and limits on phones in schools.
SACRAMENTO — The fight to lead California’s public schools is turning into a test of visibility as much as ideology, with a Misryoum reading of new polling showing how unsettled voters remain.
A voter survey on K-12 education released Wednesday by Misryoum indicates that none of the 10 candidates for California’s state superintendent reaches even 10% support among likely voters.. The message is blunt: this is less a horse race than a field without a single recognizable leader—at least in the eyes of most voters still deciding.
Misryoum analysis of the results also points to a wider tension in public opinion.. When adults were asked whether the quality of education has improved. 51% said it has gotten worse over the past few years and that major changes are needed.. Yet among public school parents, 57% said schools are headed in the right direction.. That split matters because it suggests Californians’ confidence is being strained by broader concerns. while many families who engage daily with schools still see room for progress.
A key thread running through the survey is affordability—particularly the cost of living and its impact on the teaching workforce.. Misryoum notes that 61% of likely voters approve of teachers’ unions striking for higher pay. a number that rises from long-term support but feels sharper this year because strikes and threats of strikes are no longer hypothetical.. In the survey results. teacher support appears tied to whether educators can live where they work. not just to pay levels in the abstract.
The poll also finds unusually high anxiety about readiness gaps—especially for children in lower-income communities and for students learning English as a second language.. Misryoum highlights that 79% of respondents said they are concerned that students in lower-income areas are less likely than others to be ready for college by the end of high school.. The same pattern shows up earlier: 71% said they are concerned about improving outcomes for English learners.
Campaigns are competing for name recognition more than certainty
For candidates, the hardest challenge may be simple awareness.. Misryoum reports that 32% of likely voters said they did not know who they would vote for in the state superintendent race.. Among the remaining voters. support is scattered across the 10 candidates. with most figures clustered within the survey’s margin of error.
The lack of momentum is reinforced by campaign finance dynamics.. Misryoum notes that political observers described the race as a “sleeper” outside the education community. estimating it may require $15 million to $20 million to build the kind of awareness typically needed to win.. Yet no candidate in the survey’s universe appears to have come close to that scale so far—while the top fundraising figures remain far below what would be expected in a fully visible statewide campaign.
That uneven fundraising landscape helps explain why endorsements and institutional backing could become decisive.. Misryoum points out that the California Teachers Association’s endorsement has been placed behind a veteran school board member. while union influence in this kind of race has historically mattered.. Still. the survey’s findings suggest that even strong backers may struggle to convert resources into top-of-mind recognition quickly enough to dominate voters’ choices.
Policy priorities: early education, phones in class, and student protections
Beyond personalities, voters’ preferences sketch a policy map.. Misryoum reports that 68% approve of transitional kindergarten funding for all 4-year-olds. and 72% say attending transitional kindergarten is somewhat or very important for later success.. This matters because it frames the election’s education leadership question around early intervention. not only test results in later grades.
Voters also support limiting cellphone use in school.. Misryoum notes that more than 90% of parents with school-age children back policies limiting phones. with many favoring a middle path: banning phones during class while permitting use at lunch or between classes.. That preference suggests broad support for classroom focus, but also indicates voters want workable rules rather than total prohibition.
Student safety and civil rights are another area of strong alignment.. Misryoum highlights that two-thirds of voters said they are somewhat or very concerned about increased federal immigration enforcement and its effects on undocumented students in local schools. and the same share supports districts becoming “sanctuary safe zones” to protect undocumented students.. The survey also finds 57% say it is a good thing California passed a law in 2024 that limits schools from requiring teachers or staff to disclose students’ gender identity or sexual orientation to parents without permission.
This blend of priorities—early readiness, classroom conduct, and protections for vulnerable students—helps explain why the election is not only about how to measure achievement. It’s also about how schools should function day to day and whom they are meant to serve.
What’s driving voters—and what it could mean next
Misryoum sees one of the most revealing contrasts in how dissatisfaction does not automatically translate into radical alternatives.. Less than a quarter of likely voters said they would vote yes on a November ballot initiative to provide public funding for students to attend private and religious schools.. Even with 47% saying public schools are headed in the wrong direction, voters appear reluctant to leap to voucher-style solutions.
Misryoum also flags the polling’s warning signals for system equity.. If large majorities are worried about college readiness for lower-income students and about English learner outcomes at early levels. then education leadership may be judged—by voters—on whether those gaps can shrink. not on whether new slogans appear on campaign posters.
Finally. the survey’s ballot initiative findings suggest Californians are willing to back targeted education-linked choices. especially where they see a clear beneficiary.. Misryoum notes broad support for making an expiring income tax surcharge on wealthy Californians permanent. along with strong support for community schools that provide wrap-around services.. Meanwhile. proposals to shift control of the state Department of Education away from an elected superintendent receive weaker approval. hinting that voters may be more cautious about institutional redesign than about classroom-level policies.
As the race moves toward a statewide decision. Misryoum expects the key battleground to remain not only who can win an endorsement or collect donations. but who can build trust quickly with voters still unsure who they would even choose.. In California’s current education climate. name recognition and practical results may end up mattering just as much as the campaign’s policy language.
Birthright Citizenship Ruling: What It Means for Schools
Voices of Change Fellowship: Why Imperfect Teaching Works
AI tutor upgrades: why smarter practice pathways beat “just chat”