transport emissions – New analysis says petrol price hikes barely reduce driving, while slow vehicle turnover and unequal EV charging access keep emissions rising—policy must target charging, freight and transit-first planning.
A spike in petrol prices can feel like a natural climate lever, but Misryoum’s latest look at Australia’s transport trends suggests the lever is weak.
Fuel costs rise, driving barely falls
Misryoum reports that after a 20.9% increase in petrol prices in early 2026, petrol consumption is expected to fall by just 2.4%. The message is blunt: higher costs make driving more expensive, not less common.
That distinction matters for emissions.. Transport emissions are closely tied to how much people drive. and if demand stays relatively resilient. emissions won’t drop fast enough to match 2035 targets.. In practice, many households don’t have an immediate alternative—so they absorb higher fuel bills while continuing daily routines.
The real blocker is what’s already on the road
Another Misryoum finding goes to the heart of why the transition can’t rely on consumer choice alone: fleet turnover is too slow.. The average vehicle is around 10 years old, and most cars on Australian roads still run on combustion engines.. Even with growing interest in electric vehicles. internal combustion vehicles remain dominant—on Misryoum’s figures. 98% of vehicles in use are still petrol or diesel.
This creates a stubborn timing problem.. Cars bought today will still be in service well into the middle of the decade. meaning the country can’t electrify its road transport quickly enough through vehicle replacement alone.. In other words. even if policy nudges accelerate EV sales. emissions will keep reflecting the long tail of the current fleet.
EV access is uneven: cities progress, regions risk lagging
Misryoum also highlights an infrastructure divide: urban residents are four times more likely to own an electric vehicle than rural Australians. That gap isn’t simply about preferences—it reflects how practical charging is in daily life.
In cities. charging is more likely to be available through homes with driveways. newer buildings. and denser networks of charging points.. In many regional and lower-income communities. residents may face limited access to charging at apartment buildings or workplaces. alongside fewer viable options to avoid car dependence altogether.. If the country builds charging primarily where EV ownership already exists, the transition can stall where it’s most needed.
Freight optimisation and “transit-first” are climate levers too
Transport emissions aren’t only passenger cars. Misryoum’s analysis points to freight optimisation as a necessary parallel effort—using strategies like consolidation hubs and delivery planning to reduce unnecessary vehicle kilometres and improve how goods move.
At the same time. transit-first planning is essential for the simple reason that not everyone can or will switch vehicles quickly.. When communities are designed around cars. public transport and active travel (walking and cycling infrastructure) tend to struggle to keep up with demand.. Misryoum’s framing is clear: without transit. safe cycling and walkable design. EV adoption can become a lifestyle choice for some rather than a system change that lowers emissions for all.
Why this window matters now
Misryoum’s core conclusion is that policy must move while momentum—and public attention—are aligned.. The same period that brings fuel-price pressure also increases the chance of public and political support for building alternatives.. If governments delay. the costs of catching up rise: charging networks become more expensive to retrofit. transport systems have to scale under tougher budget constraints. and emission targets tighten faster than infrastructure can be expanded.
A practical way to think about it is timing.. If Australia wants transport emissions to fall by 2035. the country needs charging infrastructure where people live. freight systems that reduce vehicle movements. and planning that makes alternatives usable before electrification arrives at full scale.. Waiting for market forces alone is risky when consumption can stay stubbornly high even during price shocks.
What Misryoum expects next
Misryoum suggests the next phase of transport policy will hinge on three interconnected priorities: charging infrastructure—especially for apartments and regional areas; freight optimisation to reduce and reshape diesel-dependent logistics; and transit-first planning so residents aren’t locked into driving by default.
The outcome will be less about whether fuel prices rise. and more about whether the country builds the options that make lower-emissions travel realistic.. In the climate race, affordability is only one variable; access and infrastructure determine whether “expensive petrol” turns into “less driving.”