Misryoum reports that analysis finds $289 million in federal education research money may go unspent by Sept. 30, threatening studies and guidance relied on by schools and states.
Federal education research money is running out of time, and Misryoum analysis suggests a large share could simply expire unused.
More than a third of the federal government’s education research budget—about $289 million—is estimated to be at risk of going unspent before the fiscal year ends Sept.. 30, according to an analysis shared with Misryoum.. The concern centers on the Institute of Education Sciences (IES). the main federal engine for generating evidence on what improves learning. attendance. and student outcomes.
The Knowledge Alliance. a coalition representing 20 private research organizations that often work as federal contractors. reviewed public planning documents connected to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).. Its estimate indicates that $289 million from a $768 million appropriation for fiscal 2025 may not be obligated in time.. For federal programs. “unspent” is not just a delay—it can become a permanent loss when funds cannot be rolled over into later years and typically revert to the U.S.. Treasury.
At the heart of the dispute is timing.. IES receives education research money with room to manage a complex grant pipeline. but the clock matters because federal obligations must be approved and moved into action before deadlines.. Rachel Dinkes. president of the Knowledge Alliance. warned that funding not tracked on schedule undermines accountability and limits what the federal government can provide to schools and states.
Misryoum analysis of the pipeline shows why the risk is so consequential: education research grants do not only fund brand-new projects.. They also help pay for multi-year studies and for the continuation of work already underway.. When federal obligations stall. researchers may be left waiting for payments. and ongoing studies can lose momentum even if the science is already moving forward.
The pressure point is especially acute in special education research.. The Knowledge Alliance estimates that roughly 85% of the $77 million set aside for special education remains unspent. and it cites a lack of expected public signals—such as notices about upcoming grant competitions—that would typically indicate plans to distribute the money.. The group also flags other areas: it estimates that about half of remaining funds for other education research and a large share of funding for education statistics face expiry risk.
In parallel, Misryoum understands that IES is not the only federal education-related program feeling budget strain.. The National Assessment of Educational Progress—often called NAEP. a high-profile federal exam used to measure achievement over time—is reportedly running over budget by $13 million. including spending tied to its oversight board.. That figure raises a separate question: how can some education measurement work proceed at one pace while major research lines appear to stall?
Several education researchers familiar with federal grantmaking point to OMB as the bottleneck.. Their account to Misryoum. which reflects concerns about administrative process rather than any single technical issue. is that OMB approval is required before IES can move forward with education grantmaking.. In other words, the research pipeline may be ready, but the authorization valve is not fully open.
Misryoum notes that OMB’s role is not new in education budgeting, but the stakes become sharper when delays compound.. Researchers say processes are hard to accelerate without shortening review and selection steps.. Under typical IES operations, grant competitions are announced for specific topics, then applicants develop proposals within a limited window.. Submissions undergo screening and panel review, and the overall timeline often stretches between six and 10 months.. That is why Congress gives IES a two-year window for annual budgets—so that evidence projects can be designed. evaluated. and launched with real structure rather than rushed compliance.
The current situation, however, places IES in a narrower runway than usual for starting new competitions.. Misryoum reported concerns that there may be insufficient time to conduct a standard competition-and-review cycle before funds expire.. The underlying dynamic is also politically sensitive: members of Congress have urged pressure on OMB. while education researchers say OMB has frozen or delayed research funding in other federal science agencies.. The U.S.. Government Accountability Office has previously found violations connected to federal impoundment rules. which require the executive branch to spend appropriated money according to law.
For educators and state leaders, the practical effect is straightforward: less timely research means less timely guidance.. Evidence about interventions—whether they address absenteeism. improve instruction. or support students with disabilities—often feeds directly into how schools choose programs. how districts allocate resources. and how states build their compliance and evaluation systems.. When IES money expires. Misryoum warns. the cost is not only financial; it is also a slower learning loop for education policy.
Looking ahead. Misryoum expects lawmakers will treat the IES funding showdown as a test case for how federal research commitments survive administrative friction.. Congress appropriated additional IES funding for fiscal 2026 that does not expire until September 2027. but Misryoum understands that spending there is also reported to be behind schedule—suggesting the issue may persist beyond a single deadline.. If that pattern continues, students nationwide could feel the lag indirectly, through delayed or diminished evidence about what works.
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