When asked during her campaign last year if she planned to support redistricting as governor, Abigail Spanberger kept it simple. “Short answer is no,” she said. The long answer was also no. It was one of the few times she took a hard stance, stepping away from the vague, non-threatening rhetoric that defined most of her run. But then, only a few days into her term—and I can still hear the distant hum of the office AC unit while reading this—she did a complete 180.
She signed legislation for a special referendum on what many are calling one of the most aggressive gerrymandering efforts in history. It feels like a massive pivot. Back in 2020, Virginia actually voted for a bipartisan commission to curb bias. When that stalled, the state Supreme Court stepped in and created a 6-5 split, which seemed to mirror the state’s actual political leanings pretty well. But now? The push is on to shift that dramatically.
It’s fascinating—or maybe just cynical—to watch the “yes” campaign ads. They’re everywhere, using ominous clips of Donald Trump and claims that this is about “protecting fair elections.” Even Barack Obama is on the airwaves every five minutes. He says it’s about a “level playing field.” But what does that mean in practice? It means turning that balanced 6-5 split into a 10-1 advantage for the Democrats. A state that gave the last administration 51% of the vote is suddenly looking at a plan that would hand one party 90% of the House seats.
There is nothing temporary about this. With $40 million backing the “yes” vote—including $5 million from George Soros—the scale of the operation is hard to ignore. The “no” side has managed to scrape together about $8 million.
Spanberger’s strategy seems like a huge risk. By abandoning her moderate image so quickly, she’s alienating a chunk of her base. A recent Washington Post-Schar School poll has her at 47% approval. Actually, let me rephrase that—it’s not just 47%, it’s that she is effectively the least popular governor of this century so far. Her disapproval numbers are sitting at 38%, which is notably higher than anything Glenn Youngkin faced during his time.
If the redistricting passes, she’s tied to a massive partisan power play. If it fails, she’s spent her political capital and lost on a national stage instead of focusing on Virginia. Either way, it’s a rough start to a term that was supposed to be built on moderation. It leaves you wondering what the endgame is—or if there even is a coherent one.