Iran has deliberately prolonged diplomatic negotiations with the United States in an effort to weaken Donald Trump politically ahead of the November U.S. midterm elections, according to senior Iranian officials. Deep distrust of Washington and fears of renewed military strikes have reinforced Tehran’s reluctance to strike a quick deal to end the eight-month-old conflict.
Three senior Iranian officials and an Iranian insider, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Tehran remains convinced that the U.S. president is prepared to resort to fresh attacks to break the stalemate in the war. The ongoing conflict began in February when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran.
“Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and U.S. attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war,” one official said. “The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory.”
Tehran analyst Saeed Leylaz noted that by prolonging the talks, Iran is effectively influencing the U.S. election without taking unlawful action. The war has driven Trump’s approval rating to a record low, with polls indicating that voters concerned about high gasoline prices are likely to punish his Republican Party in the November 3 congressional elections. Trump has stated he expects oil prices to drop after the elections but has not offered a detailed plan to end the war or reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran effectively closed at the outset of the conflict.
Iranian attacks and threats have kept ship traffic through the vital energy shipping route to a trickle. Meanwhile, a U.S. maritime blockade and trade sanctions have cut off Iran’s oil export revenues, worsening domestic economic strains. Officials stated that because Tehran refuses to grant concessions that could benefit Trump politically, the chances of a breakthrough before the elections remain slim.
Under pressure from Israel, Washington wants Iran’s decades-long nuclear program on the table from the outset, while Western powers allege the program has military dimensions that Iran denies. In response, Tehran insists that its conditions under a proposed “seven-day plan” must be met before nuclear negotiations begin, and it offers no prospect of surrendering its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s proposal, communicated through Qatari mediators, offered to reopen the strait under Iranian control provided Washington lifted its maritime blockade, eased restrictions on Iranian oil exports, released frozen assets, and ended hostilities on all fronts. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that the offer remains on the table as messages continue to pass through mediators. Neither the Iranian Foreign Ministry nor the U.S. White House responded to requests for comment.
Tehran’s skepticism regarding U.S. diplomacy stems from previous attacks that derailed past negotiations, an Iranian official explained. In June 2025, an Israeli strike wrecked plans for a sixth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Oman. Last February, the U.S. and Israel launched their war just as another round of talks concluded, with further technical discussions already scheduled. Maintaining a state between war and peace through the midterms allows Iran to sustain pressure on Washington while maintaining a posture of commitment to diplomacy.
While Trump has claimed the U.S. will not bomb Iran again before November 3, officials said Tehran expects bombing to resume eventually. Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said the clerical establishment clearly aims to hurt Trump politically, adding that Tehran ultimately believes the U.S. is interested in regime change and aligning with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policy to bring down the ruling establishment. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed Iran with Netanyahu during an unannounced visit to Israel just a week before a domestic parliamentary election that poses risks to Netanyahu’s position.
This strategy of keeping talks alive without rushing toward an agreement comes at a high price for Iran. Prolonged uncertainty weighs heavily on a crippled economy and wears down public patience, following anti-government protests around the turn of the year that left thousands dead when security forces intervened.
According to the Statistical Centre of Iran, annual inflation reached 73.6% in September, while the rial currency has fallen nearly 35% against the dollar since Washington reapplied its naval blockade in July. Energy intelligence platform Vortexa reported that Iran’s seaborne crude exports dropped to zero in the second week of September from a 14-day average of 230,000 barrels per day at the start of the month, remaining there as of October 5.
Beyond the current conflict, leadership distrust of Washington is rooted in existential concerns. Leylaz argued that Iran believes the U.S. has repeatedly broken agreements even when Tehran honored its commitments, leaving little confidence that a comprehensive deal would endure. Reaching a sustainable deal with the U.S. is no longer seen as possible even beyond the Trump administration, Leylaz said, adding that the pre-war status quo cannot be restored.
