You can feel it in the way people talk about hurricane season before it even starts—half anticipation, half worry. In April, researchers are already putting a number on what Atlantic residents might face over the next few months, and this year’s message is a little on the cautious side.
Misryoum newsroom reported that Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team released its latest annual hurricane forecast Thursday. The group is known for offering some of the earliest insights, and its new outlook suggests the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season may land slightly below average. Another major forecast—this one from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration—will be released next month, but the CSU team’s numbers are the first loud signal of what’s coming.
The CSU forecast estimates 2026 will see 13 named storms develop in the Atlantic basin. That includes six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, defined as Category 3 or higher. The storms could show up at any point in the season, which officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 and peaks between August and October. Researchers will be watching the atmosphere for hints about timing, since, as lead author Phil Klotzbach put it during a Thursday news conference, April predictions come with uncertainty—“There are curveballs that could come our way,” he said. He also noted that the April forecast, like NOAA’s, will be updated once hurricane season is underway.
Hurricane activity this year will dip to about 75% of the long-term seasonal average, according to the forecast. If accurate, that would be somewhat of a drop compared with last year’s hurricane season, which brought 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes, though none made direct landfall in the U.S. in 2025. Federal data show an average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The point, though, is less about perfect math and more about preparation—especially for communities along Florida, the Gulf Coast, and the Eastern Seaboard.
Misryoum editorial desk noted that Delián Colón-Burgos, who co-authored the forecast, emphasized this directly. She told CBS News that the safest approach is still to prepare the same way for every season. In her framing, even when the numbers look less intimidating, it doesn’t change what storms can do in the real world. She said putting the forecast out in April gets people thinking about what could arrive in the next couple of months—and, yes, it also gives emergency managers something to plan around.
The main driver behind the below-average activity is an anticipated shift in atmospheric conditions that can either suppress or encourage Atlantic hurricane development. Colón-Burgos said this comes largely from El Niño, the warmer phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO cycle, which is expected to arrive later this spring or summer, according to the Climate Prediction Center. During El Niño, Atlantic hurricanes tend to be less intense and less frequent. The Climate Prediction Center has said there’s a 61% chance El Niño will emerge between May and July and last until at least the end of 2026. Forecasters expect El Niño to be in full swing—and potentially strong—around the peak of this year’s hurricane season.
There’s also a messy wrinkle: uncertainty about what happens to Atlantic sea surface temperatures in the coming weeks. Colón-Burgos said temperature trends are giving “a bit of a mixed signal” right now, and how they evolve could affect future storm predictions. When asked about landfall, the forecast predicts a 32% chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline in 2026, and a 35% chance of one making landfall in the Caribbean. Those percentages may sound low, but researchers stress they don’t count the risk from less powerful storms—which can still be dangerous. “It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” co-author Michael Bell said in a statement.
In the quiet pause between forecasts and actual storms, it’s easy to forget the calendar doesn’t care about statistics. Last year, no hurricanes struck the U.S. for the first time in a decade, but some Caribbean islands were hit hard. Jamaica, in particular, was devastated by Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall as a formidable Category 5 storm and concluded the 2025 hurricane season. That memory tends to hang around—sometimes you notice it in the way relief crews keep their gear ready, even after the skies clear. For 2026, researchers will keep tracking the atmosphere, updating their outlook as the season approaches, and hoping the season stays “slightly” below average—while residents do the more serious work of getting ready anyway.
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