Midterm Elections: Who Is Winning the Race for Congress? Latest Data
The spending includes some new districts, most notably Pennsylvania’s First Congressional District, a seat held by Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, one of the only Republicans seeking re-election in a seat that President Trump lost in 2024. The other new districts are California’s 48th, Michigan’s Fourth and Seventh, and New York’s 19th.
Of the races the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is spending in, most are on offense. The party is spending on 21 seats currently held by Republicans and 14 held by Democrats.
One Key Metric
The average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, the most popular home loan in the United States, rose to 7.28 percent, according to the mortgage financing giant Freddie Mac. That’s the highest since November 2023.
Top Talker
Strategists on both sides of the aisle were buzzing after a report on Thursday that Paxton told a group of conservative donors and lobbyists that Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas had hurt him politically.
“Do you feel like he’s a little bit of a drag?” Paxton is heard being asked in an audio recording obtained by The New York Times.
Paxton responded: “So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.”
What captivated Republicans about the report was simple: Paxton, a longtime Trump loyalist, said aloud what they were all whispering but didn’t dare say for fear of provoking the president.
Paxton just had the misfortune of being caught on tape.
One Poll Number
84 percent.
That’s the percentage of independent voters who disapprove of Trump’s handling of gas prices, according to the NYT/Siena poll released on Saturday — a figure that has alarmed Republicans.
On the Ground
Hispanic voters along the border are voicing frustration with the president’s approach to immigration and the economy, raising questions about whether Republicans could lose districts in South Texas that the party redrew to tilt in their favor.
Ariel Salinas, the owner of a construction company in McAllen, Texas, blamed the president’s immigration crackdown for his inability to reliably find laborers for his work crews.
“Years ago, you put a fence up because people were stealing stuff. Now you put the fence up because ICE is stealing the workers. There was even a fence shortage in the summer. It caught all of us off guard,” he said.
Quotes of the Week
“It is really obvious to me that, at this very moment, Ted Cruz is running for president. At this moment, I’m not. I’m trying to help elect Republicans. That’s what I’m going to keep on doing.” — Vice President JD Vance
“In my experience, people engage in political bomb-throwing when they’re feeling insecure. So he’s welcome to make whatever comments he likes. I’m going to keep focusing on the midterms and helping us win on Election Day in the next 30 days.” — Senator Ted Cruz
Vance and Cruz, two potential presidential candidates, engaged in a bit of early 2028 sniping last week, trading barbs about their midterm campaign schedules. Vance suggested that Cruz was more focused on laying the groundwork for a 2028 primary bid than helping Republicans win the coming midterm elections. Two days later, Cruz shot back, brushing off Vance’s jab.