Long-Term US Unemployment Surges 68 Percent Ahead of Midterm Elections

The number of Americans struggling to find work for six months or longer has increased significantly ahead of the midterm elections, revealing a layer of labor market weakness that is obscured by the headline unemployment rate.

Federal data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that about 1.9 million Americans were unemployed for at least 27 weeks in September, accounting for 27.1 percent of all unemployed individuals. A report from MyPerfectResume indicates that long-term unemployment has climbed 68 percent since 2023, when roughly 1.1 million people faced prolonged joblessness. During that same period, the share of unemployed Americans out of work for at least 27 weeks rose from 19 percent to 26 percent.

While the headline unemployment rate remained within a narrow band of 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent since March—sitting at 4.2 percent in September with 7.1 million total unemployed—employers added just 29,000 jobs that month. Analysts describe the current conditions as a low-hire, low-fire environment characterized by historical lows in hiring rates alongside below-average layoffs.

Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group and host of the 9innings podcast, noted that workforce uncertainty is driving the trend. Employers facing rising prices and broader economic unpredictability are reluctant to expand payrolls until macroeconomic direction becomes clearer. Thompson also cautioned that weekly continuing jobless claims fail to capture the full scope of joblessness, because individuals whose unemployment benefits expire after 26 weeks drop out of those continuing tallies without necessarily having found new work.

Finding alternative employment has grown increasingly difficult for job seekers across experience levels. HR consultant Bryan Driscoll pointed to systemic hurdles, noting that employers frequently maintain rigid qualification requirements and outdated interview questions regarding employment gaps. According to Driscoll, older workers encounter age barriers, younger candidates struggle to gain entry-level experience, and experienced professionals are routinely turned away or dismissed as overqualified.

“The reality is, if you lose your job or are downsized in the current environment, you should prepare to be out of work for three to six months, potentially longer, or face the possibility of taking a significant pay cut,” Thompson said.

The strain arrives at a politically sensitive juncture, with affordability and economic stability expected to dominate voter concerns at the ballot box. A Pew Research Center survey conducted in October found that 84 percent of registered voters considered the economy very important to their vote, a view shared across party lines by 88 percent of Democrats and 82 percent of Republicans.

Polling indicates widespread public dissatisfaction with economic management. A RealClearPolling average covering October 9 through October 30 showed that only 32.9 percent approved of President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy, compared to 64.7 percent who disapproved. Similarly, the October CNBC All-America Economic Survey found that 65 percent disapproved of the administration’s economic stewardship, with 80 percent describing the economy as fair or poor and 63 percent expressing pessimism about current conditions and future outlooks.

Driscoll argued that the lived reality of inflation, housing costs, and prolonged joblessness creates a disconnect when officials claim the economy is performing well. However, Thompson observed that because voters often struggle to assign clear political responsibility amid competing partisan narratives, these deep-seated economic frustrations may not translate into a straightforward political advantage for the opposition.