In the closing hours of a hard-fought campaign, Iowa Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek caught a glimpse of a prediction market on former U.S. Senator Tom Harkin’s phone during a stop in western Iowa. The figures on the screen showed Turek leading his Republican opponent, Ashley Hinson, 52% to 48%, highlighting the unexpected competitiveness of a contest few expected to be in play at the start of the cycle.
Surrounded by supporters at a canvass launch in Le Mars, Turek acknowledged the race’s national significance. “This may very well be the closest election on the entire U.S. Senate map,” he told the crowd, framing his bid as an opportunity for generational change in a state that has leaned right in recent years. The open Senate seat, left vacant by retiring GOP Senator Joni Ernst, is part of a broader political shift in Iowa, where Democrats are also targeting the governor’s office and several House seats.
A state lawmaker and former Paralympic wheelchair basketball player who grew up with spina bifida—which he attributes to his father’s exposure to Agent Orange in Vietnam—Turek models his political style after Harkin, whom he describes as a common-sense prairie populist. Unlike some within his party, Turek has expressed a willingness to collaborate with President Trump, drawing parallels to his bipartisan approach in the Iowa legislature.
“How will I work with him? In the exact same way that I’ve done in the Iowa legislature,” Turek said at a campaign stop, noting that no single party holds a monopoly on good ideas. He pointed to areas of potential agreement with the president, such as eliminating taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security, as well as driving private equity out of housing. Regarding Trump’s recent campaign visits to the state, Turek suggested the trips allowed the president to witness firsthand the impact of healthcare cuts, tariffs, and the war in Iran on local communities.
Turek’s message has found traction among voters weary of intense polarization. Doug Zima, a 76-year-old supporter in Onawa, voiced approval for the candidate’s openness, saying he had never witnessed such deep division within families and the country.
On the airwaves and at campaign stops, Turek’s closing arguments have focused on economic pressures, high fuel prices, public education, water quality, and the state’s high cancer rates. He has criticized his opponent for not doing enough to push back against tariffs and the conflict in Iran. Adapting a famous line from Ronald Reagan’s 1980 campaign, Turek asked voters on the trail whether Iowans are better off than they were two, four, or six years ago—the span of Hinson’s tenure.
Hinson, meanwhile, has positioned herself as a minivan-driving mother and common-sense conservative ready to deliver results for the state. While initially pledging to be the president’s top ally and campaigning alongside him, Hinson has adjusted her messaging in recent weeks, indicating she is willing to challenge the administration when necessary. She has argued that Turek is too liberal for Iowa and called for an immediate and successful end to the war in Iran to help lower energy costs.
Turek argues that his personal background provides a deeper level of empathy and understanding for constituents facing economic and health hardships. That perspective resonated with independent voter Dan Hicks, who remarked that Turek talks more like an ordinary citizen than a career politician.
Joined frequently on the trail by Harkin, who represented Iowa for three decades, Turek is urging voters to restore a tradition of independent-minded representation in Washington. As volunteers prepared to knock on doors in the final stretch, Turek emphasized the historic stakes of the campaign.
“If we do this, if we win this election here in Iowa, we will not only make a generational change to the state of Iowa,” Turek said, “we will change this country.”
