Middle Eastern leaders and diplomats are warning that another military campaign against Iran by the United States and Israel could unleash an even more destructive regional war, leaving neighboring countries to bear the economic and security fallout. The concerns were voiced at the IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, where officials expressed alarm over the prospect of renewed hostilities.
“We find ourselves drawn within a crisis that we worked diplomatically very hard to try to avert,” Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE’s president, told the forum. “We are clearly seeking a political off-ramp.”
President Donald Trump has stated that the U.S. and Israel would “finish the job” in Iran, ruling out fresh strikes before the U.S. midterm elections but leaving the door open for renewed attacks while peace talks remain deadlocked. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty also voiced acute anxiety, telling delegates that a second round of fighting would prove “more dangerous, more destructive, and it will lead to nowhere.”
Months of conflict have already taken a heavy toll across the region. Iran has fired thousands of missiles and drones at Gulf states, targeting oil installations, airports, and power facilities, resulting in civilian casualties and severe economic disruption. The International Monetary Fund projects that Saudi Arabia’s economy will contract by 3.3% this year, with even steeper economic contractions anticipated in Kuwait and Qatar.
Defense analysts note that Tehran appears better equipped for a renewed confrontation. Despite months of allied airstrikes, Iran has preserved sufficient domestic manufacturing capacity to replenish its arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones. According to data compiled by Economics, Iran had launched more than 4,000 Shahed drones and at least 2,000 ballistic missiles since the war began on February 28. Western intelligence assessments from June indicated that Tehran retained roughly three-quarters of its prewar munitions inventory.
Emile Hokayem, director of regional security and senior fellow for Middle East security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, observed that Iran has adapted its military strategy following earlier setbacks. “Iran is much better prepared for another round of fighting,” Hokayem said, adding that Tehran’s performance showed its military institutions are capable of learning.
Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered military commanders to prepare for immediate retaliation without geographic limitations and expanded the scope of potential U.S. and Israeli targets. Iranian state media highlighted that the armed forces intend to dictate the terms and conditions for ending any resumed hostilities.
Gulf nations are simultaneously struggling to replenish their dwindling stocks of air-defense interceptors amid global supply constraints and priorities elsewhere. The conflict has laid bare the unsustainable financial burden of using sophisticated missile batteries to intercept inexpensive Iranian drones, prompting Gulf forces to increasingly rely on attack helicopters, fighter jets, anti-aircraft artillery, and electronic countermeasures.
Resentment has also grown among Gulf capitals over bearing the costs of a conflict they did not start. Jasem Al-Budaiwi, secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council, emphasized that member states neither initiated nor sought the war. While regional officials publicly praised the U.S. security umbrella, private frustrations ran deep regarding Washington’s diplomatic unpredictability and its decision to prioritize Israeli defense over regional partners.
“There is widespread disappointment across the region with the United States over the folly of the war, the erratic nature of Washington’s military and diplomatic conduct, and its decision to prioritize Israel’s defense over that of its Gulf partners,” said Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He added that the current conflict may be remembered as the turning point that undid the security architecture established after the 1991 liberation of Kuwait.
In an urgent bid to head off further military escalation, senior diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan traveled to Tehran last week, while Qatari mediators engaged in parallel talks in Tehran and Doha. Major hurdles remain in negotiations. Iran is demanding the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, the easing of sanctions, and the release of frozen assets before it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, whereas Washington insists on strict nuclear concessions.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated that mediators were discussing a proposal to reopen the strategic waterway within two days should Tehran’s demands be satisfied, though he cautioned that any final agreement hinges on official responses from the U.S. Gargash warned that failure to bridge these diplomatic gaps would leave the region vulnerable to the worst-case scenario.
