election denial – A new analysis shows the number of ‘election denier’ candidates has dropped by 30%, but experts warn that those who do win remain a threat to the 2028 cycle.
The ghost of the 2020 election still stalks the halls of American government. but its grip on the ballot appears to be loosening. For years. validating the false claim that the 2020 presidential race was stolen served as a mandatory litmus test for Republican candidates. Today, that animating force is showing signs of exhaustion.
A new analysis from States United Action, a nonpartisan group, reveals that the number of congressional and statewide candidates backing those claims or attempting to overturn results has plummeted. In 2022, there were 285 such candidates; by 2026, that number dropped to 197—a 30% decline.
While the movement is receding, the stakes remain high. The current roster of 197 candidates includes contenders for governor, attorney general, U.S. Senate, and the House. Most critically, it includes those vying for secretary of state positions—offices that act as the gatekeepers of electoral administration. With 33 such candidates on the ballot this November, the results will determine who oversees the machinery of the 2028 presidential race.
Historical data suggests these candidates face an uphill battle. Since 2021, fewer than one in four candidates categorized as “election deniers” have managed to win a statewide office. Joanna Lydgate, CEO of States United Action, notes that the strategy is increasingly viewed as a loser. “We know that election denial is a losing campaign strategy and that Americans are tired of hearing the same old lies. ” Lydgate said. Yet. she warned. the structural risk persists: “The candidates who win in 2026 will run our elections in 2028 and serve as a check on Trump’s power in the meantime.”.
Nowhere is this friction more visible than in Arizona. The race for secretary of state pits incumbent Democrat Adrian Fontes against Alexander Kolodin. an attorney who was disciplined by the State Bar for his role in failed 2020 election lawsuits. While Kolodin avoids the “election denier” label and points to his bipartisan work in the state legislature. he remains unwilling to definitively state that Arizona’s elections are safe and secure.
Behind these political maneuvers, the bedrock of voter confidence is cracking. A recent survey from the University of California. San Diego. found that only 49% of Americans believe the November election will be free and fair. This erosion of trust persists even as the partisan gap in confidence begins to narrow, according to Pew.
Ultimately. the threat to the system may depend on whether rhetoric on the campaign trail translates into policy once a candidate takes the oath of office. Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC-San Diego, argues that victory does not guarantee obstruction. “The real question is not what people have said about past elections but whether the elections that they run are going to be rooted in reality. informed by the experts in their teams. ” Kousser said. “If people come into office and take an open and honest look. that’s going to be very different than if they came in with their mind made up. ignored the evidence and pushed for policies that are not rooted in reality.”.
There is precedent for such a pivot. In South Dakota, outgoing Secretary of State Monae Johnson entered office as a skeptic of the electoral process but is leaving as a defender of its integrity, having even endorsed a Democrat to succeed her after repeated clashes with her own party.
Currently, 27 statewide officeholders identified as election skeptics hold some level of oversight over the voting process. Whether that number grows or shrinks in 2026 will decide the integrity of the next presidential contest.
U.S. politics 2026 elections election integrity States United Action Trump election deniers