South Carolinians have elected Republican senators in every election cycle of the 21st century, but the contest to succeed the late Sen. Lindsey Graham has unexpectedly transformed into a competitive fight. Recent polling indicates that GOP Sen. Darline Graham is locked in a tight race with Democratic challenger Dr. Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who secured her party’s nomination in June.
Polling released by /Siena shows likely voters in the state essentially evenly split between the two major-party candidates. The Cook Political Report has steadily adjusted its outlook on the contest, moving it from “Solid Republican” in August to “Likely Republican,” and subsequently shifting the rating to “Lean Republican” on Oct. 20.
The race mirrors national political headwinds facing Republicans ahead of Election Day. Generic ballot polls show voters favoring Democrats nationally, while GOP candidates are defending leads in traditionally safe strongholds like Texas, where Democratic candidate James Talarico has polled ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in a high-profile Senate race. Similar tightening is visible in gubernatorial contests, such as in Ohio, where Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is facing an aggressive challenge from Democrat Dr. Amy Acton in a race recently re-rated as “Lean Democrat.”
Political experts attribute the unexpected competitiveness in South Carolina to a combination of broader national pressures and specific local circumstances set in motion by Lindsey Graham’s death in July. Nationally, the sitting president’s party historically loses congressional seats during midterm cycles. This pressure has intensified as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have dipped to levels not seen ahead of a midterm since Harry Truman’s presidency in 1946, weighed down by public dissatisfaction over the economy and the war in Iran.
“That’s hurting Republicans everywhere across the country,” says Joseph Ura, a professor of political science at Clemson University. “You see tight races in places that aren’t usually tight for Republicans, like Texas and in Ohio… so that’s everywhere, including South Carolina.”
Locally, the dynamics of the race shifted profoundly following the death of Lindsey Graham, who had represented the state in the upper chamber since 2003 and won his June Republican primary by a nearly 28-point margin before passing away. Although Darline Graham was appointed by the state governor to complete her brother’s term and is running as the incumbent, her brief tenure means the contest is functioning effectively as an open race.
Following a crowded summer primary where no Republican secured a majority, Darline Graham advanced to an August runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman, ultimately prevailing by a margin of less than five points. Shannon Bridgmon, a political scientist at the University of South Carolina, notes that the primary created a significant fracture within the state GOP. While Norman has stated he does not plan to join the senator’s campaign, he has indicated an intention to vote for her, though rumblings of a potential write-in campaign have circulated among some of his supporters.
Scott Huffmon, a professor of political science at Winthrop University and director of the Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research, points out that some conservative members of the party viewed the late senator as too liberal. Consequently, some factions within the GOP feel that Darline Graham was foisted upon them after receiving early praise and public backing from Trump before announcing her run for a full term.
Darline Graham’s lack of prior elected office before her appointment has also drawn criticism. During an August debate against Norman, she faced blowback after acknowledging she was not well-informed on national security when questioned about Taiwan and the South China Sea. Ura notes that she lacks the established public standing and voter relationship enjoyed by her late brother.
Conversely, Democrats have rallied strongly behind Andrews. Huffmon describes her as a formidable fundraiser capable of generating strong enthusiasm and spreading effective messaging. Andrews has also secured notable bipartisan backing, featuring in a campaign video alongside former South Carolina Republican Governor David Beasley and former Democratic Governor Jim Hodges.
Despite the tightening polls, Bridgmon emphasizes that Andrews still faces an uphill climb in a state that fundamentally leans Republican. A decisive factor on Election Day will be voter turnout, particularly whether Norman’s supporters cast ballots for Darline Graham or opt elsewhere. While Ura suggests it would still be surprising for a Democrat to ultimately claim the seat, he acknowledges that the race represents an extraordinary performance for a Democratic statewide candidate in South Carolina and will likely influence future campaign strategies for both parties.
