WTO global – The World Trade Organization has doubled its 2026 merchandise trade growth forecast, citing a massive surge in AI infrastructure spending that is effectively countering energy market instability.
The machines are moving the global economy. As conflict in the Middle East throttles traditional energy routes, a rapid, localized explosion in artificial intelligence infrastructure has become the unexpected engine of global commerce.
In Geneva. the World Trade Organization issued a sharp revision to its global trade outlook this week. more than doubling its earlier merchandise growth forecast for 2026 to 3.9%. This figure represents a significant leap from the 1.9% growth predicted in the spring. Looking toward the future. the trade body now anticipates 4.1% growth for next year. a notable increase from the 2.9% projection issued in March.
Behind these numbers lies a shift in how goods move across borders. While the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. which began in February. has shaken the flow of oil. gas. and fertilizer through the Persian Gulf. global supply chains have proven more resilient than anticipated. Liquefied natural gas exports from the region cratered by 47% in the first half of the year. with crude oil exports dropping by nearly a quarter. Yet. because other suppliers stepped in to fill the gap. the overall global decline for LNG was held to roughly 1%. with crude exports slipping only 6%.
This relative stability in energy has allowed the AI boom to take center stage. Semiconductors and servers—the hardware required to power the digital intelligence shift—accounted for 47% of all global merchandise trade growth during the first half of 2026. Trade in these specific products surged 67% year-on-year, a pace that has accelerated beyond the rapid expansions seen throughout 2024 and 2025.
The trajectory of the global economy is now tethered to two competing forces: the persistent drag of regional conflict and the hyper-growth of high-tech infrastructure. While the WTO projects global GDP will grow by 2.6% this year and 2.9% in 2027. this progress remains under the shadow of energy price volatility and transport route disruptions. Even as the digital sector expands. the physical cost of the Middle East conflict continues to weigh on the international trade balance.
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