Soaring fuel prices and cost-of-living pressures are driving widespread unrest across Europe, creating fresh political momentum for far-right and populist parties ahead of upcoming elections in countries including France, Italy, and Poland. Parties that were once considered fringe are capitalizing on deep voter discontent, drawing support from rural motorists in France to workers in eastern Germany.
The economic strain follows years of financial pressure from the pandemic and the fallout from Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The challenge intensified significantly after an outbreak of conflict in February, which sent energy prices sharply higher and compounded the difficulties for governments already struggling to contain inflation, support economic growth, and rein in spending.
The European Commission estimates that the conflict has cost Europe roughly €100 billion, equivalent to about $112 billion, through disrupted trade and energy markets. Across the continent, gas prices have jumped approximately 140% and diesel prices have doubled.
Discontent has spilled into streets across the continent. In France, demonstrations that began over deteriorating school facilities in the northern suburbs of Paris evolved into severe unrest, featuring looted shops, torched buildings, and the burning of a 19th-century town hall in Limoges. The unrest has provided an explosive backdrop to the presidential election scheduled for next April, as President Emmanuel Macron’s government struggles with a ballooning budget deficit and bond market pressures.
In a weekend address, Macron acknowledged the legitimate demands of protesters angered by rising living and fuel costs, while condemning the violence and looting. “We must never confuse them with those who destroyed, vandalised and looted,” he said.
Polling by Elabe indicates that Marine Le Pen, frontrunner for the far-right National Rally, has seen her ratings improve while Macron’s have slipped since the conflict began. Le Pen’s proposal to sharply cut value-added tax on fuel has attracted broad public support, resonating strongly with core voters in rural and semi-rural areas where car travel is essential. Hard-left veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon has similarly made fuel prices a central plank of his campaign.
Protests and industrial actions have erupted in other nations as well. In Italy, police in Milan clashed on Sunday with protesters hurling stones and looting stores during demonstrations over poor public services and rising living costs. In Gela, on Sicily’s southern coast, farmers protested high fuel costs that have made operating machinery prohibitively expensive. Roadblocks by truckers, farmers, and steelworkers disrupted transport across parts of southern Italy, causing local fuel shortages and concerns over supermarket supplies.
In Portugal, tens of thousands marched through Lisbon on Saturday to protest low wages, housing costs, and the rising cost of living, increasing pressure on the country’s centre-right government. In Spain, the eviction of an 87-year-old woman sparked nationwide demonstrations over housing shortages and soaring rents, helping trigger a snap election set for next month. Belgium has experienced demonstrations, while large rallies in Albania have been driven by anger over perceived government corruption, a lack of jobs, and poor education standards.
Political scientists point to purchasing power as a major driver of populist politics across Europe. Gilles Ivaldi, a political scientist at Sciences Po, noted that rising fuel prices are an issue Le Pen has owned for quite some time, helping boost her standing.
In neighboring Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) leads national opinion polls following strong gains in local elections. Cost-of-living concerns topped German priorities for a fifth straight year in a survey published in October, and inflation spiked to nearly a three-year high in September with energy price inflation reaching 14.9%. The developments have given ammunition to the AfD to attack Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Jan Steckel, a professor for the political economy of climate change at the Technical University of Munich, noted that past experience links high energy prices with voter turnout for the AfD. Populist parties often frame energy costs as avoidable and attribute them to government policy choices rather than underlying geopolitical shocks, a strategy that makes it difficult for incumbent parties to respond effectively.
Politicians on both the hard right and hard left are increasingly arguing that restoring energy ties with Russia would help lower costs, challenging Europe’s mainstream consensus on support for Ukraine. In Germany, the AfD argues that Berlin’s support for Ukraine is needlessly self-sabotaging while the nation’s energy-hungry companies struggle.
Similar dynamics are playing out elsewhere. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni faces growing competition from National Future, a new far-right party led by former army general Roberto Vannacci that advocates restoring gas links with Russia. In Poland, a staunch supporter of Ukraine, concern over energy bills is boosting support for the far-right Confederation of the Polish Crown. Its leader, Grzegorz Braun, has called for a return to buying Russian oil and gas, making the case alongside AfD politicians in Lubmin, where the damaged Nord Stream pipelines land in Germany.
