Ceasefire optimism, at least on paper, is colliding with a louder reality around the Strait of Hormuz. Even as U.S. officials praised a two-week pause, comments and warnings from several corners of the region suggest the buffer is thin.
In notable comments online, the United Arab Emirates’ industry minister blasted the status quo around the strait. “This moment requires clarity,” wrote Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber, who is also the chief executive of the state-controlled oil giant ADNOC. “Let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled.”
U.S. messaging has been just as firm, but in a more conditional way. Vance, in his remarks in Hungary, vowed the war would resume unless Tehran followed through on its promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, where around 110 ships traveled daily before the war broke out. “The president is not going to abide by our terms if the Iranians are not abiding by their terms,” he said. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, hailing the two-week ceasefire as a “victory” for the U.S., said it was “completely unacceptable” if the Strait of Hormuz was indeed largely closed, though she added that the president was privately assured it would be open. She also pointed to traffic changes in real time.
“We have seen an uptick of traffic in the strait today,” Leavitt told reporters at a briefing, and the briefing room had that familiar hush—paper rustling, someone typing faster than they should—while she reiterated the demand. She said the president would press “immediately, quickly and safely” for the strait to be reopened, and that reports publicly saying otherwise were false.
Not everyone seems convinced the talks can survive the broader conflict. Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to the speaker of Iran’s parliament, suggested on X that Israel’s continued wave of strikes in Lebanon threatened to derail the talks altogether. “Without fully restraining America’s rabid dog in Lebanon, there will be no ceasefire or negotiations, and the missiles are ready to launch,” Mohammadi said. It’s a sharp link to draw—trade the fate of a maritime corridor for what happens in another country—but it’s also exactly the kind of pressure that often seeps into diplomacy.
The exact nature of the scheduled diplomatic talks in Islamabad was still coming into focus Thursday. Vance will be joined by Steve Witkoff, the White House’s special envoy, and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law. The makeup of the Iranian delegation was not immediately known. Vance had been in touch with intermediaries from Pakistan about a potential deal in the last two weeks, leading to a flurry of diplomatic activity while he was overseas in Hungary on Monday and Tuesday, according to a source familiar with the discussions. Trump directed Vance to communicate a version of the message he had made publicly: the U.S. is open to a possible ceasefire, but only if certain U.S. demands are met.
At the same time, Vance repeatedly delivered what officials described as a stern message—growing impatience, more pressure on Iranian infrastructure until Tehran made a deal, and a readiness to hit targets not yet struck by the U.S. Iran’s envoy to Pakistan, meanwhile, said on X that the regime’s delegation would arrive in Pakistan on Thursday night—then deleted the post without explanation. Ambassador Reza Amiri Moghadam said that “despite skepticism of Iranian public opinion due to repeated ceasefire violations by the Iranian regime,” the group would travel to Islamabad on the invitation of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. He did not provide further comment after deleting the post less than an hour later. So the schedule is taking shape—just not the confidence to match it, not really, not yet.
Shipping at a standstill near Strait of Hormuz despite Iran ceasefire