Where is – Tropical Storm Amanda, the first named storm of the 2026 hurricane season, is moving northwest near 1,500 miles west-southwest of Baja California. The National Hurricane Center expects strengthening Thursday, then weakening beginning Friday night or Saturday,
By Thursday morning, Tropical Storm Amanda had already put the Atlantic season on pause—its energy forming thousands of miles from land, but its track drawing attention anyway.
The National Hurricane Center said the first named storm of the 2026 hurricane season formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Wednesday. June 3. In an early morning advisory on June 4. forecasters placed Amanda about 1. 500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph.
Amanda is moving toward the northwest around 8 mph. Forecasters expect a gradual turn toward the west-northwest and west during the next couple of days. By this weekend, the storm is expected to turn toward the southwest, but at a slower forward speed.
The forecast carries a clear message for watchers: strengthening could arrive first. but the storm is not expected to hold its strength. The NHC said Amanda is expected to strengthen some throughout Thursday, June 4. Weakening is expected to begin by Friday night or Saturday, according to the hurricane center.
For now, the immediate concern is limited. The NHC said Amanda does not currently pose any threat to land.
A storm’s most likely path matters, but so does the uncertainty around it. The hurricane center’s forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. and it does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts. The center also warned the storm’s center is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
The NHC’s “spaghetti models” reflect that same reality. These illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.
Beyond Amanda, forecasters are keeping two other systems under watch in the eastern Pacific basin. The NHC said an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America and southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for that system to strengthen into a tropical depression late this weekend or early next week. and the hurricane center gave it a 50% chance of tropical development within the next week.
A second area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern and southwestern Mexico early next week. The NHC said environmental conditions also appear conducive for some gradual development into early next week. It said a tropical depression could form during this time as the system moves northward or northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico. with a 60% chance of tropical development within the next seven days.
What makes Pacific storm watching different is the odds. Unlike storms in the Atlantic basin. the vast majority—roughly 85% to 90%—of storms that form in the Pacific never threaten land and often spin out to sea. Still, they can occasionally impact Hawaii, the west coast of Mexico, or the Southwest U.S. with heavy flooding and rainfall.
Taken together, the picture is one of motion without immediate land threat—yet constant monitoring. Amanda’s track is being tracked with a range of models, while two additional low-pressure areas are poised to develop on overlapping timelines in the eastern Pacific.
Tropical Storm Amanda National Hurricane Center NHC advisory June 4 2026 hurricane season eastern Pacific Baja California spaghetti models tropical development chances Central America low pressure southern Mexico low pressure