Texas Senate contest narrows as James Talarico’s poll lead shrinks while Ken Paxton rises

Democrat James Talarico’s advantage over Republican Ken Paxton is narrowing in Texas’ closely watched U.S. Senate race, with two recent polls showing Paxton gaining ground as Election Day approaches.

Cutting into Talarico’s lead

A Texas Public Opinion Research survey released on September 25 found Talarico leading Paxton 49 percent to 44 percent among 1,007 likely Texas voters surveyed from September 19-22. That five-point advantage is down from the six-point lead Talarico held in the organization’s August survey.

The movement came as fewer voters remained undecided. The poll reported that undecided voters fell from 7 percent in August to 3 percent in September, while Paxton’s support rose from 42 percent to 44 percent.

Talarico’s support rose from 48 percent to 49 percent. The September survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Other recent polls

A separate Texas Southern University survey also showed the contest tightening. Talarico led Paxton 47 percent to 46 percent among 1,800 likely voters surveyed September 15-19, compared with a 47-45 percent advantage in July. Talarico’s support remained unchanged while Paxton gained one percentage point.

The Texas Southern poll carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.31 percentage points, putting Talarico’s one-point advantage well within that range. Libertarian Ted Brown received 3 percent, while 4 percent remained undecided.

Other recent surveys have similarly pointed to a competitive race. An Emerson College poll put Talarico ahead 47 percent to 46 percent, while a Marist survey of registered voters gave the Democrat a larger 50-44 percent advantage.

The tightening contest has put renewed attention on Texas, where Democrats are attempting to capture a Senate seat in a state that has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1988.

Republicans are concerned

Conservative strategist Steve Bannon has publicly warned Republicans about taking the race for granted, saying Paxton has a “real fight on his hands.”

“People should just assume we’re losing and you’re going to have to win,” Bannon said.

He also questioned whether Republicans would successfully mobilize voters, warning that some could be “upset” with President Donald Trump and stay home during the midterms.

Bannon has also attacked Talarico ideologically, warning that he would be “one of the most radical people” ever elected to the Senate.

Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz has similarly described Talarico as “the most woke left-wing senator the country has ever seen” and said the Democrat intends to model himself after Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Cruz has acknowledged that Talarico “has a real chance” of flipping the seat while maintaining that he expects Republicans to prevail.