Old Farmer’s Almanac warns gardens face 2026 drought

The Old Farmer’s Almanac says 2026 is shaping up to bring a hotter, drier-than-normal summer, with uneven rainfall likely to strain plants, soil, and water supplies across much of the United States. It urges gardeners to change how they water, improve soil moi

By the time summer heat settles in, it can feel too late to fix the basics. The Old Farmer’s Almanac is telling gardeners not to wait—warning that 2026 may bring a hotter, drier-than-normal summer that could push gardens to the edge in many regions of the country.

The Almanac’s long-range outlook points to above-average temperatures dominating much of the United States. while rainfall is expected to arrive unevenly and. in many places. fall below normal. For gardeners. that combination can quickly turn ordinary dry spells into sustained stress—especially as soil dries faster and plants struggle to hold onto moisture when evaporation speeds up.

The Almanac’s warning isn’t confined to the places Americans already associate with drought. While it says the West and Southwest will remain hotspots. the dry pattern is described as expanding across multiple regions. including areas that don’t always plan their gardens around long stretches without rain.

In the West and Southwest, conditions are expected to stay among the most consistent, along with the High Plains, including parts of Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska. Those areas are projected to see below-average rainfall alongside above-average temperatures.

A broad corridor of dryness is also flagged across the Northern U.S. including parts of Idaho. Montana. and the northern Plains. The Almanac says that band stretches eastward into the upper Midwest. with Michigan specifically mentioned as part of the area that could face longer dry stretches between rainfalls. The risk there isn’t just fewer rainy days—it’s the difficulty of keeping soil moisture from draining away when dry periods linger.

Even the East is not spared. The Almanac highlights a corridor from the Northeast down the Atlantic coast. with sections of the Ohio Valley and parts of the Southeast and Florida also expected to face a trend that leans toward limited rainfall and higher evaporation. In some of these regions. the forecast is mixed. with occasional storms—yet the overall message remains the same: water may not arrive when plants need it most.

Part of the Almanac’s urgency comes from the broader backdrop of warming summers. It points to data analyzed by Climate Central using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) records. showing that summer temperatures have risen in about 97 percent of major U.S. cities since 1970. For gardeners. the Almanac draws a direct line from that shift to more evaporation. drier soils. and greater stress on plants—particularly during prolonged dry spells.

That heat-and-dry pairing can create a familiar cascade of problems. According to the Almanac, soil dries out faster, reducing moisture available to roots. Plants can become stressed, leading to slower growth, wilting, or reduced yields. Lawns and shallow-rooted plants are described as struggling first—often because they rely on moisture closer to the surface. The Almanac also warns that gardeners could face higher water usage and may have to make tough decisions about what to keep alive.

It’s also a reminder that how you water can determine whether a garden survives until the next rain. The Almanac’s advice begins with changing timing and method: water deeply and strategically. watering less often but thoroughly so moisture reaches 6-8 inches down into the root zone. It recommends watering early in the mornings to avoid evaporation in the midday heat.

Improving soil moisture retention is another key step. The Almanac says adding compost or organic matter helps soil hold water. and applying mulch keeps the soil cooler while reducing evaporation. It also points to efficient watering systems such as drip irrigation or soaker hoses. emphasizing delivery directly where it’s needed.

Planning matters, too. The Almanac urges gardeners to focus water on essential plants. like vegetables or newly planted areas. and considers swapping in drought-tolerant or native plants that need less water. It also recommends building long-term resilience by treating healthy soil like a sponge—then grouping plants by water needs to avoid overwatering some while underwatering others.

The Almanac is equally firm about what not to do. It warns against watering lightly and frequently, saying shallow watering encourages weak roots and increases evaporation. It cautions against watering leaves, noting that overhead watering wastes water and can promote fungal diseases. It also warns not to overwater. explaining that too much water can be as damaging as too little. leading to root issues and disease.

Another mistake the Almanac highlights is ignoring soil health. Poor soil cannot retain moisture, leaving plants far more vulnerable during heatwaves. It also advises against waiting until plants are visibly stressed. since by the time plants wilt. they may already be experiencing significant damage.

For gardeners looking for options that can better handle a dry summer. the Almanac says drought-tolerant varieties are increasingly popular—plants that have adapted to dry conditions. often with deep root systems or moisture-retaining leaves. It points to native and low-water plants as especially strong choices. noting that they’re naturally suited to local climates and typically need less irrigation once established. It also mentions plants from dry regions such as the Mediterranean as performing well in hot conditions.

Among its “reliable drought-tolerant choices,” the Almanac lists lavender, coneflower, yarrow, Russian sage, and black-eyed Susan. It says these can continue to grow and bloom even when water is limited.

A hot, dry summer doesn’t automatically mean a failing garden, the Almanac argues. But it does mean preparation has to start before the stress arrives—conserving water. strengthening soil. and choosing plants built for heat. For gardeners facing 2026’s forecast. the difference may come down to something as basic as when you turn on the hose—and how deeply the water actually gets.

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