King Charles faces monarchy test as support trends shift

New polling data from Britain’s long-running British Social Attitudes survey points to rising support for abolishing the monarchy—while royal popularity tied to events continues to swing. The findings land as King Charles III navigates fallout from Andrew Moun

King Charles III is heading into another political weather system—one that isn’t only about titles, or headlines, or even family. It’s about numbers.

Across the Atlantic. the king’s recent State Visit to America came with multiple standing ovations before Congress and a State Banquet at the White House. In Britain. though. pressure has been building in recent years. fueled in part by the continuing fallout from Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein—an issue that has pushed renewed debate about whether the monarchy still has a future.

Mountbatten-Windsor is under investigation by Thames Valley Police on suspicion of misconduct in public office. The scrutiny follows reports alleging he leaked confidential Government documents to Epstein. Separately. Virginia Giuffre accused him of sexually assaulting her when she was 17 and said she had been trafficked to him by Epstein. Mountbatten-Windsor has denied any Epstein-related wrongdoing.

In the middle of that. King Charles stripped his brother Andrew of his “Prince” and “Duke of York” titles in October. after newly released emails between Mountbatten-Windsor and Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. Mountbatten-Windsor was later arrested by police and released under investigation in February. in the aftermath of the release of the Epstein files. which contained previously private emails between him and Epstein. The scandal has tested public opinion and sparked discussions among U.K. Members of Parliament about a potential select committee inquiry into Mountbatten-Windsor.

The figures behind the debate come from a dataset that looks beyond the peaks and drops that often follow specific royal moments. Newsweek examined available data on support for abolition in the U.K. drawing on the British Social Attitudes survey run by the National Centre for Social Research. The survey has collected data since 1983—meaning it charts public views over more than four decades.

That long run matters because it allows respondents to express their feelings in more than one way. Instead of forcing a binary “abolish or keep. ” the question in the survey asked: “How important or unimportant do you think it is for Britain to continue to have a monarchy?” Respondents could choose “very. ” “quite. ” “not very. ” and “not at all. ” and there were also options for “the monarchy should be abolished. ” “don’t know. ” and “refused” to answer.

In 1983, 3.1 percent of British people said they wanted to abolish the Monarchy. By 2024, that figure had risen to 15.3 percent, the most up-to-date figures collected 41 years later. On average, support for scrapping the crown has increased by around 0.3 percentage points per year. If the trend continues in a straight line—without accounting for “shocks” like major royal events. leadership transitions. or political developments—support could take roughly 120 years to reach a majority in favor of abolishing the monarchy.

Royalists have reason to cling to that kind of long-range projection. But the survey also shows something sharper moving under the surface: an erosion in how many people say the monarchy is essential.

In 1983, 64.6 percent of respondents said it was “very important” for Britain to have a monarchy. By 2024, that had fallen to 24.1 percent, a drop of more than 40 points over 41 years. Over the same period, the total figure for “very” and “quite” slid from 86 percent to 51 percent. Meanwhile, the combined total for “not very,” “not at all,” and “abolish the monarchy” rose from 13 percent to 46 percent.

If those current trends keep moving. the data suggests that in just five years. the share of British people who either want to abolish the monarchy or see it as unimportant could rise over 50 percent—an outright majority. By then, the total percentage who view the monarchy as “very” or “quite” important would be around 47 percent. Ten years out, the share answering “very important” would drop further: a projected decline of 9.9 points to 14.2 percent. The “very” and “quite” categories together would drop to 42.5 percent. while “not very. ” “not at all. ” and “abolish” would rise to 54 percent.

The numbers also shift when the question becomes simpler—and more urgent. In 2025 data. when people were given a binary choice between keeping an elected head of state and abolishing the monarchy. the scales tipped further toward abolition. In total, 58 percent wanted to keep the monarchy compared to 38 percent who wanted a democratically elected head of state. That split suggests some people who express dissatisfaction through softer categories could shift toward abolition if faced with a referendum-style choice.

Still, public mood doesn’t automatically translate into political action. Any change would depend on whether a referendum is pursued—and that would come down to politics and attitudes inside the Government of the day, whichever party is running it.

For now, the political path looks narrow. Keir Starmer, the current Prime Minister, is unlikely to abolish the monarchy. Yet the immediate political environment is not calm. Starmer is also expected to face a leadership challenge that could end his premiership from within his own party if rival Andy Burnham gains a seat in Parliament via an upcoming by-election.

Royal events are also feeding the argument on both sides. King Charles’s October decision to strip Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor of the “Prince” and “Duke of York” titles came after newly released emails between Mountbatten-Windsor and Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. Then. the February arrest and release under investigation—connected to the Epstein files that included previously private emails—kept the story in the spotlight. At the same time, Charles’s U.S. visit brought praise across Britain’s political divide. including multiple standing ovations before Congress and a State Banquet at the White House. His relationship with Trump may also have offered a signal to Britain’s political class that the royal family remains a “valuable tool” for international diplomacy in a post-Elizabethan era.

The monarchy’s future has always been debated in Britain. and it has often been pulled along by the timing of tragedy. renewal. and generational change. Supporters of abolition point to declining popularity. while royalists argue that crises—such as the aftermath of Princess Diana’s death—were followed by recoveries. including a surge around Prince William and Princess Kate’s wedding. They say the same could happen again when the spotlight moves to Prince George, Princess Charlotte, and Prince Louis.

For King Charles III, the question is no longer only whether public sentiment will wobble with headlines. It’s whether those swings are slowly reshaping the long-term math—especially as the monarchy is asked to absorb new shocks and still prove, to the public, that it deserves to endure.

King Charles III monarchy abolition British Social Attitudes survey Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor Epstein Thames Valley Police Virginia Giuffre Keir Starmer Andy Burnham public opinion UK