KAT’s Finals surge and Knicks’ fixes tilt the series

As the 2026 NBA Finals shift to New York City, a midseries roundtable has one answer above all others: Karl-Anthony Towns has been the driving force through the first two games, with the Knicks’ defensive structure and bench energy turning San Antonio’s best o

Game 3 in the 2026 NBA Finals doesn’t feel like a normal turning point.

The series has already tipped in one direction—so far. the road team has won the first two games. a result that in the NBA is rarely the beginning of a comeback. San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks is now heading to New York City. a place ready to treat these finals like an all-you-can-eat late-night binge. The scores may look like a blowout. but the debate underneath them is more nuanced: what’s been working. what’s broken. and whether this version of the Knicks can keep it up on their home floor.

A panel of The Athletic’s NBA experts—Dan Woike. Will Guillory. Nick Friedell. Tony Jones and Jay King—answered the questions that have followed Games 1 and 2 like a shadow: who the Finals MVP has been so far. what the Knicks are doing right. and what San Antonio needs to fix before the series fully steamrolls into New York.

Who is the Finals MVP as of now, and why?

The group’s vote is unanimous: Karl-Anthony Towns.

Woike said it’s “not particularly close. ” pointing to how Towns has been following the top-line scouting report against Victor Wembanyama—attack him. not just survive him. Towns has played that way “from the start of Game 1. ” in attack mode at the rim. with the 3-point shot added as a complement to dribble-drives. Woike also highlighted the impact measure that’s been consistent: in two games. the Knicks have been 25 points better than the Spurs with Towns on the court.

Guillory’s take starts with Jalen Brunson’s fourth-quarter shotmaking, which helped New York win Games 1 and 2 on the road. But Guillory argued the steadier source of quality offense has been Towns—his passing from the top of the key or in the post when he’s doubled. his ability to thrive when San Antonio tries to put smaller players on him. and his role in keeping Wembanyama “pretty ordinary on offense for six of the eight quarters that have been played so far.” Guillory even wished the Knicks had leaned harder into Towns when the game slowed down.

Friedell. who said he once doubted Towns could reach this level. called it mature execution under pressure: Towns has taken it right to Wemby. wasn’t afraid of the moment. and has continued to produce when the Knicks needed him most. Brunson may have more star power, Friedell said—but Towns is the MVP so far.

Jones focused on the matchup itself and the confidence behind it: Towns hasn’t backed away from Wembanyama the way Chet Holmgren did. Jones said Towns has “almost singularly wrecked San Antonio’s defensive scheme. ” which is wrapped around keeping Wemby close to the basket to help and protect the rim. The result is a set of impossible choices for the Spurs: put Wembanyama on Towns and he drags him out to the 3-point line; keep Towns isolated and he cooks if Towns is on the floor with Luke Kornet; send a smaller player after him and Towns attacks the lane and makes plays. Jones summed it up as a win against Wemby—then added that Towns has accomplished more than the direct matchup.

King echoed that framing. crediting Towns for winning the assignment even outside of a couple of “overeager fouls.” Towns’ perimeter skill set matters against a defense built to protect the rim: his passing. poise and outside shooting have helped the Knicks solve San Antonio even as Brunson has dealt with “atypical inefficiency from the field.” King also described Towns as physical. tough and persistent on both ends. and ready for a stage where Wembanyama is the focal point.

Who has been the X-factor of the series?

If Towns is the headline, the X-factor conversation splits across different kinds of momentum.

Woike chose Josh Hart, describing him as a constant around winning plays: chasing down rebounds, rerouting Wembanyama’s roles, and impacting outcomes without needing to lead the scoring.

Guillory pointed to Jose Alvarado, emphasizing how New York has outscored San Antonio by 15 points in the 21 minutes Alvarado has played in the Finals. The point, Guillory said, is that New York has kept generating good offense even when Brunson sits.

Friedell’s pick was Landry Shamet, calling him the lift off the bench and describing the feeling as simple—when he gets the ball, it’s supposed to go in. Friedell said Shamet has helped in both games and has been integral throughout the postseason.

Jones agreed with the X-factor choice more than the label, naming Alvarado as well. Jones said Alvarado’s numbers may not pop. but he’s handled San Antonio’s ball pressure almost flawlessly. got New York into its offense in minutes without Brunson. stayed solid defensively. and made the shots available to him.

King went with Shamet. He didn’t want to call OG Anunoby an X-factor. even while noting Anunoby has had big plays over the first two games and that he still can’t believe the referees initially missed a three-shot foul in the corner. King said Shamet’s energy helped win Game 2. and that when Shamet was on the court. the Knicks “zipped around”—cutting into openings and swinging the ball immediately to the open man. creating trouble even for Wembanyama.

One thing the Knicks are doing right?

Across the answers, the same theme keeps resurfacing: New York has made life uncomfortable on purpose.

Woike said the Knicks are clogging the paint so well that. aside from some Dylan Harper drives. nothing for the Spurs has looked easy. He connected it to a bigger shooting issue around San Antonio—there’s been talk around the NBA for months about how real the Spurs’ shooting actually is. The Knicks seem to have bet the ball might “feel a little heavy” for the Spurs on the biggest stage. and whether it’s nerves or tired legs from a seven-game Western Conference finals. the Spurs can’t find the basket from the perimeter right now.

Guillory added another layer: even with Brunson taking a ton of shots, the Knicks have kept everyone involved. He pointed to Mikal Bridges’ huge stretch in the second half of Game 2. to Anunoby’s decisions and jump shots. and to Shamet as key ingredients. Guillory described the shift as a move away from earlier habits—past Knicks teams too often stood around watching a Brunson show—while this version takes advantage of every bit of space on the floor.

Friedell described the approach against Wembanyama in physical terms. The Knicks are taking it right to him. throwing bodies at him so he has to work for everything. not only as a defensive assignment but all over the floor. Friedell also suggested New York has “gotten into his head. ” pointing to how Wembanyama arrived “full of confidence” after knocking off the Oklahoma City Thunder and how the Knicks have altered that rhythm.

Jones argued that the Knicks aren’t just winning possessions—they’ve kept their identity and raised it. He said the Knicks have been one of the best teams in the league since the second half of the regular season. then kicked it up during the playoffs. Winning so many postseason games consecutively. Jones said. makes you a juggernaut—and New York has done to San Antonio what it did to the Eastern Conference.

King closed it out with trust as the engine: the Knicks are playing with unshakable belief in each other. They find San Antonio’s vulnerabilities and capitalize together. When the Spurs switch a guard onto Towns, the Knicks don’t hesitate: they throw it down low, and Towns makes the right play.

One thing Wemby and/or the Spurs need to fix?

If the Knicks have a plan, San Antonio is being asked to rewrite theirs—quickly.

Woike said “more Dylan Harper” should be the direction, even if it means less Stephon Castle. Harper. Woike argued. is the most physical around the basket and among the few Spurs players who has gotten to the rim and been able to finish. If the Spurs are going to create better looks, Harper needs more shots and more minutes.

Guillory framed it as a Wembanyama problem of aggression. Wemby has to play with the same aggression he showed in the second half of Game 2. The Spurs need him to force New York to react more often in the paint. Guillory said too often in the first two games it’s felt like Wembanyama is allowing the Knicks to dictate terms. When he overpowers defenders in the paint. he’s almost unstoppable; when he floats on the perimeter and shoots fadeaways. it’s easier to defend. Guillory even pointed to a practical line: there shouldn’t be another half of the series where Wembanyama attempts only four shots.

Friedell asked where the aggressiveness went. He reminded the panel that in the Thunder series. the Spurs set the pace. backed up everything with strong defense. and got Wemby rolling offensively. Friedell said the Knicks changed the game plan—and since late in Game 2 nearly stole the contest. New York has largely been more aggressive and tougher. That means the Spurs need to find their confidence again and remember how they got here.

Jones offered a tactical adjustment: if he were the Spurs. he’d try two bigs and play Luke Kornet and Wembanyama together. Offensively, Jones said it could work with Wemby’s skill level. Defensively. the thinking would be to have Kornet take away Towns’ jumper. then keep Wembanyama close to the basket for rim protection.

Jones also put two problems on the Spurs’ plate: they haven’t found Brunson defensively nearly enough, and they haven’t made enough shots.

King pointed to defense as the immediate fix. He said the Spurs’ defense was too scattered in Game 2. especially until the latter half of the fourth quarter when rotations stayed too slow and couldn’t catch up to the Knicks’ offense. Wembanyama had some great plays, King said, but also got caught looking human at points. New York’s five-out shooting and athleticism tested San Antonio differently than Oklahoma City did. and King said any comeback would have to start with more consistent defense.

A series shaped by roles, not just stars

Even the stat line on Brunson carries a kind of tension. Jalen Brunson has taken 56 shot attempts in two games against the Spurs, but he’s averaging 25 points per game.

That balance—star efficiency vs. the rhythm New York has built around other pieces—helps explain why Towns and the bench are taking up so much oxygen in this roundtable.

Predictions before the first tip, and what’s changed now

The experts didn’t always start in agreement.

Woike had the Knicks in six before play started and is sticking with it. arguing the Spurs are better than they’ve shown so far and that it still feels like the Knicks eventually have to lose a game. But through the first two games. he said the Knicks look like the team more ready to hoist the trophy. and he called it “impossible” for them to lose four times in the series.

Guillory also started with Knicks in six, but is leaning Knicks in five now. Friedell moved from Spurs in seven—he said he believed in Wemby’s superstar power—to Knicks in five. pointing to Brunson as the best closer and Towns as someone “on the verge of forever changing the narrative” about his career.

Jones predicted Knicks in seven and still believes the series isn’t over, arguing the Spurs could take one at Madison Square Garden. Even one win for San Antonio, given home-court advantage, keeps the series competitive.

King picked the Knicks in six before it started, saying he might not have given them enough respect. He described San Antonio’s earlier playoff competition as not elite, but acknowledged this is now inspired basketball from New York.

If the Knicks sweep, how high does this playoff run go?

The roundtable’s tone changes again when it moves from the current series to legacy.

Woike went as far as calling this “the greatest NBA playoff run of all time. ” comparing it to the 2017 Golden State Warriors and the 1983 Philadelphia 76ers—teams that went through the playoffs with just a single loss—but stressing that even those teams were regular-season monsters. He said this Knicks run follows a regular season that was “good (but not great)” at 53 wins. after the Knicks lost twice to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round. Woike compared their surge to a hockey team getting month-long goaltending at the exact right time. The fire is the point: “There have been better teams to play in the playoffs. ” he said. “but I don’t think there’s been a hotter one.”.

Guillory placed it behind only the 2001 Lakers with Shaq and Kobe at No. 1, and Kevin Durant’s Super Warriors run in 2017 at No. 2, putting the Knicks at No. 3. He said winning 15 consecutive playoff games alone would place them among the best runs we’ve ever seen. and the road dominance matters—he described it as “all-time stuff.”.

Friedell said it doesn’t top the KD/Steph Warriors “at least in recent years,” arguing the Knicks also faced the Atlanta Hawks, Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers to reach this point.

Jones said a sweep would put the Knicks right at the top. If you win that many playoff games in a row with the net rating the Knicks have. Jones said. you can’t ignore the level of dominance. He added that this doesn’t feel like the Knicks just got hot at the right time; it’s been that way for the second half of the season. Going 16-2 in a playoff run, Jones said, is incredibly difficult.

King closed with a caution: don’t force all-time comparisons. but if New York sweeps. the run would still be all-time. In his image, the city wouldn’t just celebrate—it would carve it into the culture. “Imagine how legendary these Knicks would be in New York. ” King said. adding that someone would have to start sculpting a Brunson statue.

For now. the Finals move to New York City with the same uneasy reality hanging over every possession: the road team has already won the first two games. and the Knicks have built a plan that keeps finding cracks in San Antonio’s answers. Towns has looked like the kind of force that changes how a series is remembered. And with Wembanyama’s role under pressure—and the Spurs’ defense still needing to become less scattered—Game 3 isn’t just the next chapter.

It’s the test of whether this is a temporary tilt, or a full takeover.

2026 NBA Finals Spurs vs Knicks Karl-Anthony Towns MVP Victor Wembanyama Jalen Brunson Josh Hart Jose Alvarado Landry Shamet OG Anunoby Mikal Bridges Luke Kornet Dylan Harper Stephon Castle