James Talarico suffers double polling blow as Texas Senate race against Ken Paxton grows increasingly competitive
Austin Democrat James Talarico, who had been riding a wave of favorable polling in the unlikely territory of Texas, now has some reason to worry, according to the results of two recent polls. Comparing the results of Texas Public Opinion Research surveys from August and September, it has been found that the percentage of voters supporting Talarico has slipped by one point, while the percentage of undecided voters has also decreased. Overall, the numbers point to the Texas race as shaping up to be a tight contest.
Texas Public Opinion Research surveys spell bad news for James Talarico
The latest Texas Public Opinion Research survey published on Friday, September 25 — conducted from September 19-22 among 1,007 likely Texan voters — showed Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 49% to 44%, commanding a lead of five points. Compared to the same survey from August, which found the progressive Democratic candidate leading Paxton by six points, the numbers show a decrease in support for Talarico by one point, although it falls well within the poll’s margin of error. The comparison also shows a two-point increase in support for Paxton.
Ken Paxton nearly closes gap in Texas Southern University poll
A new Texas Southern University poll conducted between September 15 and 19 among 1,800 Texan likely voters gave Talarico a one-point advantage over Paxton: 47% to 46%. By comparison, the previous Texas Southern University poll conducted in July gave Talarico a two-point advantage, 47% to 45%. While support for Talarico has remained unchanged, support for Paxton has increased by one point over the two surveys.
Notably, Talarico still maintains a lead in eight different polls, although his advantage fell within the margin of error. An Emerson College survey showed Talarico leading Paxton with a single-point advantage, while an AARP survey conducted between August 30 and September 1 gave him a 4-point lead over Paxton. A YouGov/Univision poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted between August 27 and September 4 put Talarico ahead by 5 points, with a 3.6-point margin of error.
Democrats eye Texas as battleground opportunity
In their bid to gain a majority in both congressional chambers, Democrats have been trying to make inroads in more conservative and traditionally Republican territory and contest them as battlegrounds. The most notable example is Texas, a GOP bastion that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Noted election forecasters have rated the Texas Senate contest a toss-up, essentially making the traditionally Republican stronghold a battleground state. While Talarico’s advantage across a series of polls gave Democrats hope in the Lone Star State, the latest results have prompted cause for concern, especially as the race is shaping up to be significantly competitive.
Steve Bannon, Ted Cruz issue warnings about Texas race
Conservative strategist and longtime Trump ally Steve Bannon recently sounded the alarm about Republicans’ chances in Texas, saying that Paxton has a “real fight on his hands,” adding, “People should just assume we’re losing and you’re going to have to win.” He further questioned the extent to which Republicans will be successful in mobilizing voters, saying that the public might be “upset” with President Donald Trump and stay home during the midterms. Bannon also warned that Talarico would be “one of the most radical people” to ever serve in the Senate if elected, echoing concerns raised by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in recent weeks.
Cruz said Talarico would be “the most woke left‑wing senator the country has ever seen” if elected. He added that Talarico intends to model himself after Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. The Texas senator previously acknowledged that Talarico “has a real chance” of flipping Texas in the midterms, although he noted that he believes Republicans will win the Texas Senate nonetheless.