With the 110th Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge set for Sunday at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, four prominent voices in the IndyCar paddock make their picks—Josef Newgarden’s uphill climb, Alex Palou’s repeat bid from the pole, Scott McLaughlin’s “paid
Sunday’s Indianapolis 500 isn’t just a race-day question—it’s a fight over momentum. starting positions. and who looks most ready when the noise finally becomes real. The 110th Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge is set for Sunday at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The poll of opinion is clear: only one driver can leave victory lane. Everyone else is trying to explain why it should be theirs.
Curt Cavin starts by laying out how he sees the field. At the beginning of the month, he assigned drivers to tiers based on their ability to win Sunday’s race. Only two drivers were included in his top group, and one of them will start 23rd: Josef Newgarden. Cavin says Newgarden can still win his third “500. ” but it will take a lot to go right to climb through this competitive field. In his view. the more likely scenario is that his other Tier 1 driver wins from the pole—so it comes down to Alex Palou.
Cavin’s confidence isn’t casual. He says Palou hasn’t done anything this month to dissuade him, and if anything, he’s even more sure of Palou’s chance to repeat.
Eric Smith makes his own case in a different register: timing and redemption. He thinks it’s Scott McLaughlin’s year. pointing to how McLaughlin went from a pace lap crash before even taking the green flag last year to winning a year later. Smith ties that arc to what Indianapolis is built to reward. Indianapolis, he says, has a way of testing drivers before rewarding them with glory.
McLaughlin’s form, in Smith’s telling, comes with names and proof. Smith points to McLaughlin having a fast race car and reaching victory lane twice on ovals in 2024—at Iowa Speedway and Milwaukee Mile. And if McLaughlin wins, Smith says, expect a wild celebration.
Then comes Arni Sribhen’s quieter argument, built around method and the math of starting spots. He says May has been quiet for Scott Dixon. The six-time INDYCAR SERIES champion, he writes, has methodically done the work his Chip Ganassi Racing team needed for “The Greatest Spectacle in Racing.”
Sribhen emphasizes what Dixon didn’t do in May: Dixon never led any of the speed charts during the month. But Dixon still earned his place in the race’s early cut. He went out first and put up a time that got him in the Fast 12, and he will start 10th in Sunday’s race.
For Sribhen, the number 10 carries baggage. History suggests that 10th isn’t the best starting spot—only two winners have started 10th. with the last being Alexander Rossi in 2016. At the same time. Sribhen leans into the bigger trend: front-row starters are the favorites. as the winner has come from the first three starting positions 46 times. And yet, he says, Dixon is poised to do what he’s always done on Race Day.
If Sribhen expects “Scott Dixon things,” Paul Kelly expects a different kind of leap—one that could swing the story toward Team Penske’s record. Kelly says he wasn’t sure before this season that David Malukas might be ready for a Team Penske seat. But he says he was wrong.
Malukas, Kelly writes, is the highest-ranking Penske driver in the NTT INDYCAR SERIES entering the “500.” Kelly’s pick is Malukas to earn his first career series victory and deliver the legendary team with its record-extending 21st Indy 500 win in the biggest race of all.
His reasons are stacked with specific anchors. Kelly says Malukas has been consistent and fast since practice opened May 12. He notes that Malukas finished second here last year in an AJ Foyt Racing car. Kelly adds that Team Penske doesn’t boggle pit stops, and he points to Malukas’ starting spot—third.
Starting third, Kelly says, has history on his side: 14 “500” winners have come from that spot, and only the pole winner has more wins, with 21. Kelly acknowledges that this year’s pole winner is Palou—then doubles down anyway, sticking with Malukas.
All five drivers named—Josef Newgarden. Alex Palou. Scott McLaughlin. Scott Dixon. and David Malukas—are chasing the same checkered flag. but the paths being described aren’t the same. Two different starts at opposite ends of the grid show up in Cavin’s tier argument. while the others point to a mix of oval experience. quiet preparation. and starting-position history.
With Sunday still ahead. the race has already turned into a referendum on who’s built for the test Indianapolis delivers. From Cavin’s pole-driven bet on Palou. to Smith’s push for McLaughlin after a crash-to-win turn. to Sribhen’s trust in Dixon despite a 10th-place start. to Kelly’s insistence that Malukas can bring Penske a record-extending 21st Indy 500 win—every pick is a wager on what matters most when the green flag finally drops.
Indianapolis 500 110th Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge Indianapolis Motor Speedway Alex Palou Josef Newgarden Scott McLaughlin Scott Dixon David Malukas Team Penske