Democrats turn to state races in redistricting push for 2028

2028 redistricting – With court rulings favoring Republicans nationally, Democrats are pursuing statehouse control this fall to shape 2028 congressional maps.

A new mid-decade redistricting reality is forcing Democrats to pivot fast: instead of trying to undo Republican-leaning map changes at the congressional level, party strategists are shifting much of their attention to who controls state legislatures.

After a sequence of court rulings gave Republicans a decisive edge in the national redistricting fight. Democrats’ immediate options for a “counterpunch” before this year’s midterms were left narrow.. With the House poised at stake in November and Republicans holding the upper hand in how new maps are being approved. Democrats are looking to build the kind of governing leverage that can carry forward into the next map cycle.

A U.S.. Supreme Court decision last month paved the way for a wave of GOP-controlled states to redraw district lines.. In multiple cases, the changes benefit Republican-drawn maps that reflect majority-minority districts now represented by Democrats.. The momentum also builds on additional favorable maps enacted over the past year at President Donald Trump’s urging. further stacking conditions against Democratic efforts to steer congressional boundaries in the near term.

Democrats also saw one of their more direct responses hit a legal wall in Virginia last week, when the state Supreme Court struck down the party’s effort there. The broader implication for Democrats is that they have fewer “stop-the-bleeding” levers available during the current cycle.

The party’s constraints are partly structural.. Democrats control fewer state governments than Republicans. and in several states the map-drawing process is handled by commissions rather than lawmakers.. Even in states where legislatures do have the authority. timing is tight: new congressional map efforts must be initiated before November if Democrats hope to influence what happens later. when control of the narrowly divided House is on the line.

But party leaders are framing the shift as a longer-term strategy aimed at 2028.. CJ Warnke. communications director for House Majority PAC. said much of the visible “redistricting pushback” from Democrats will occur in 2028 rather than immediately. depending on what happens this fall at the state level.

To lay the groundwork. a trio of Democratic groups coordinating around flipping legislative chambers this fall is targeting at least a dozen states.. The aim is to either take control of legislative chambers Democrats can influence. or bolster existing majorities. so Democrats can ease their path to redistricting efforts starting next year.

House Majority PAC. the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. and The States Project are among the main players in the coordinated push.. The effort is largely expected to be driven by the DLCC. which announced plans in December to spend $50 million to flip up to 650 legislative seats across 42 chambers in about two dozen states.

In Wisconsin, Democrats are looking for a path to take both legislative chambers, building on steady gains in 2024.. Arizona is another focal state for the DLCC’s spending push.. Minnesota is also on the list. where Democrats would need to flip just one seat in the state House while also protecting a narrow advantage in the state Senate to control both chambers.

Strategists say that if Democrats hold onto the governor’s office in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Minnesota this fall, the party would secure a “trifecta” across those states—an arrangement that can matter when new maps are being drafted or approved.

The DLCC is also targeting Michigan, where it is investing with an eye toward flipping the state House. Washington state is another priority, with Democrats aiming to build supermajorities in both chambers.

DLCC President Heather Williams characterized the Supreme Court decision as a major turning point for the electoral landscape. tying the need for state-level power to what she described as the importance of building a strong foundation.. She emphasized that every election now carries weight for redistricting and for democracy. and that Democrats need a national plan for flipping statehouse majorities.

House Majority PAC is planning additional investments in several of the same legislative battlegrounds, and the focus extends beyond the largest “trifecta” targets. New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are among the states where legislative races could be crucial.

In New Hampshire, Democrats would need to win control of both chambers and also the governorship in order to position themselves well for subsequent map work. In Pennsylvania, Democrats are working to protect a narrow majority in the state House while also seeking several seats in the state Senate.

Warnke said Democrats plan to be “aggressively” pursuing new maps across the country in 2027 and 2028 to push back against what he described as Republican efforts to disenfranchise voters.. The messaging from the groups points to ensuring Democrats have the ability to draw maps that counter attempts to lock in partisan advantage.

The States Project is also investing in legislative races tied to the same broad state list. and it is extending its efforts to additional states including Nebraska and Oregon.. In Oregon. Democrats already control both chambers and the governorship. but the party is seeking a supermajority in both chambers to advance a redrawn map. and it is currently short by only a few seats in the state Senate.

In Nebraska, Democrats are aiming to cut into Republicans’ supermajority in the state’s unicameral Legislature. The campaign framing emphasizes that small changes in legislative control can translate into major differences in how district maps are handled.

Democrats’ map history is being used as evidence in the internal debate about what can be accomplished.. The only successful map-drawing push from Democrats for the 2026 cycle. according to the report. came in California. where voters approved new district lines in a special election last year.. Those changes could translate into as many as five additional seats for Democrats.. The report also pointed to Utah, where a court-ordered map created a new solidly Democratic seat.

On the other side of the equation. Republicans are positioned to gain as many as 14 seats through six new maps enacted over the past year. with the most recent coming in Tennessee.. Earlier this week. the Supreme Court also cleared the way for Alabama to implement a new map eliminating a district held by Democrats.

A similar dynamic is emerging elsewhere: a new map proposal in Louisiana would also eliminate a Democratic-held district. Together, these moves underline why Democrats see state-level control as a necessary hedge against ongoing national momentum.

The States Project’s executive director. Mandara Meyers. said her organization had been preparing for nearly a year for the Supreme Court ruling and its knock-on effects.. She noted that “unexpected things” along the way—including the Virginia Supreme Court ruling—threw off earlier expectations about how mid-decade redistricting efforts would unfold.

Even with those setbacks. Meyers said the response is aimed at expanding the party’s footprint so Democrats can be in as many states as possible where governing power can be built.. She added that the strategy is designed so potential gains in state legislative power this November could secure as many as nine congressional seats as Democrats look toward 2028.

Democrats are also eyeing states where they already hold enough control to pursue 2028 redistricting campaigns.. They are optimistic about Colorado. where a measure could be placed on the ballot in the fall that would implement a Democratic-friendly map for the 2028 and 2030 elections while bypassing the state’s independent redistricting commission.

In other states, Democratic governors have signaled they may move later in the process. Democratic governors including JB Pritzker in Illinois and Kathy Hochul in New York have suggested recently that they are likely to tackle new maps after the midterms.

Still, the groups’ plans face hurdles that go beyond elections. Independent redistricting commissions in states such as Arizona and Michigan introduce additional barriers even if Democrats win statewide political power.

Not every Democratic-controlled state may be ready to pursue a redraw, either. The report cited an example from Maryland, where a redistricting bid this cycle met resistance in the state Senate. There, the Democratic leader raised concerns that a push to redraw could backfire.

Republicans are also expected to keep pressure on. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp called for a special legislative session in June for lawmakers to consider a congressional map for the 2028 cycle. In Mississippi, Gov. Tate Reeves said he expects the Legislature to redraw lines between now and 2027.

Republican leaders, meanwhile, are warning Democrats that maintaining—and potentially expanding—state legislative control remains essential.. Mason Di Palma. a spokesperson for the Republican State Leadership Committee. said Republicans may have the advantage in the redistricting arms race for now. but that Democrats have signaled they will prioritize state legislative races in 2026 and will spend whatever is required.

Di Palma argued that investing in state legislative races is a cost-efficient strategy for conservatives, because the lawmakers elected in 2026 will hold the “map-making pen” in 2027 and 2028, shaping political outcomes for years. He said the party cannot afford complacency.

Despite losses and setbacks. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York said during a Capitol Hill news conference Wednesday that Democrats’ resolve is stronger than it has ever been.. He said the party would not “unilaterally disarm,” framing the redistricting effort as an ongoing fight that is only beginning.

For Democrats. the central question now is whether state-level power can be built quickly enough to counter years of court-fueled map changes.. The strategy outlined by multiple groups suggests that even if the 2026 cycle offers limited openings. the battleground for redistricting—and control of who draws the lines—may shift decisively toward state legislatures in the run-up to 2028.

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