Daniil Medvedev vs. Francisco Cerundolo prediction, odds, picks for ATP China Open 2026

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday’s Medvedev-Cerundolo men’s singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Medvedev a 68% chance of winning against Cerundolo at the ATP China Open tournament.
Additionally, Medvedev has a 65% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the oddsmakers have got it right with the +3.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the under 22.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.

 

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Francisco Cerundolo +218, Daniil Medvedev -250
• First Set: Medvedev -200, Cerundolo +162

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Cerundolo @ +218 via DraftKings
• First Set: Cerundolo @ -102 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Francisco Cerundolo to win.

Although Cerundolo is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP China Open match between Daniil Medvedev and Francisco Cerundolo is scheduled to begin on Sunday at 4:30 AM ET.

• Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Francisco Cerundolo
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 4:30 AM ET/1:30AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Beijing, China Men’s Singles 2026
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with a 68% win probability, will likely beat Francisco Cerundolo at the ATP China Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article’s predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers’ proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.