Russia shipped its lowest volume of crude oil in a month during the four weeks leading up to October 18, driven primarily by an operational pause at its critical Baltic export hub of Primorsk. Overseas crude flows dropped to 3.59 million barrels per day during the period, marking a decrease of 110,000 barrels per day compared with the preceding four-week window ending October 11, according to tanker tracking data compiled from industry reports and satellite imagery.
Satellite imagery of the Primorsk terminal near St. Petersburg revealed a complete absence of tankers berthed at its jetties in the middle of the week, while automatic tracking signals and industry reports indicated a three-day gap in vessel arrivals and departures. Similar disruptions at the facility in the past have typically been linked to maintenance work. The slowdown proved temporary, however, as activity at Primorsk rebounded by the end of the week alongside a recovery in shipments through the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
Weekly figures underscored the volatility of the export flows. During the week to October 18, exactly 31 tankers loaded 21.91 million barrels of Russian crude, down from a revised 24.63 million barrels carried by 34 ships the previous week. Average daily shipments for that single week plunged by 390,000 barrels to settle at 3.13 million barrels per day, the lowest mark recorded since March. Cargo movements can experience sharp fluctuations due to weather conditions, facility maintenance, sanctions pressure, military activity, and the exact timing of vessel departures.
Operational capacity at Novorossiysk was utilized in part to handle non-Russian shipments. The port accommodated two shipments of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade during the week. Moscow redirected all shipments of Kazakh crude through the Black Sea port last month, a move designed to free up additional export capacity at Ust-Luga on the Baltic coast, which is regarded as a safer operating environment. Kazakhstan’s state-backed shipments, managed by KazTransoil JSC, transit Russia but remain exempt from European Union sanctions and price caps, having been rebranded since the invasion of Ukraine to separate them from Russian-origin barrels.
The volume of Russian crude actively in transit on the water edged lower over the period. This decrease in shipments was partially balanced by slower delivery schedules to refinery customers in China and India. Tankers transporting Arctic crude to China frequently perform ship-to-ship cargo transfers. These transfers typically occur east of Singapore for vessels taking the Red Sea route, or off Nakhodka and Zarubino for ships utilizing the Northern Sea Route. Most Sokol cargoes undergo similar transfers in Kozmino Bay, a process that can introduce logistical delays and increase the total volume of oil remaining at sea.
Financial metrics reflected the drop in physical export volumes. On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow’s maritime crude exports declined to $2.61 billion per week for the 28 days ending October 18, representing a $60 million reduction from the previous period and reaching a three-week low. Higher four-week average prices for ESPO crude, which accounts for more than a quarter of total overseas shipments, partially offset the lower export volumes and a minor decline in Urals crude prices. On a weekly basis, export values fell by roughly $380 million to $2.33 billion, hitting a six-week low as lower Urals prices compounded a third consecutive weekly drop in shipments.
Destination data indicates that China and India continue to purchase the vast majority of Russian crude exports. However, because final destinations often remain unconfirmed until late in a voyage, many recent shipments currently display interim destinations such as Suez, Port Sudan, or Singapore, classifying them as “Unknown Asia.” Observed shipments to Asian customers totaled 3.43 million barrels per day in the four-week period, down from a revised 3.54 million barrels per day previously. Meanwhile, shipments to the Mediterranean region remained stable at approximately 100,000 barrels per day, supported by tankers rerouting toward Mersa el Hamra and Turkey, while exports to Syria dropped to zero following bilateral negotiations with the United States.
